The crypto world is always bustling, but if you want to survive long-term, first fill in the 'money-losing pit' before you qualify to talk about profits. The following notes are not some flashy new theory, but a few hard-earned experiences I've gathered after stepping into pits, climbing out, and stepping back in - written for you who also want to avoid detours.
1. First, a few unchanging hard rules.
Placing an order without looking at the chart? Stop!
K-line is the ECG of the market; buying directly without checking is like driving with your eyes closed.
Chase higher after positive news, likely to be a runner-up.
Real big funds usually act earlier than news; by the time news is published, the price movement is already on the chart.
A crash does not mean it's cheap.
Price 'halved' can occasionally be a bargain, but most of the time, the bottom hasn't been seen yet.
Don't get attached to falling trends.
As the knife falls, reaching out will only add another wound.
Maintain a steady rhythm.
Switching between long and short in the same market is not flexibility, it's lack of discipline.
2. Three most effective chart signals.
Volume and price - a rocket needs ignition first.
Price rises with volume increase: only real buying pressure can push it.
No volume breakout: mostly a false start.
Long-term trends - don’t just focus on five minutes.
New highs, no trapped positions above: room opens up.
New lows: better to miss out than to force a catch.
Relative Strength (RS) - compare muscle against the market.
RS up: even with a short pullback, it resists declines better than others.
RS down: even if it hits a new high, it could be the last struggle.
3. How to buy: two-phase entry method.
Eat half of your position first.
Just broke through, lock in a 'ticket to enter'; if it really becomes a big market, you can continue riding.
Wait for a pullback to fill up.
When the price pulls back near the breakout zone and volume significantly shrinks, then fill your position.
4. How to choose sectors and coins.
Don't ask 'what to buy' first, look at the 'big climate' first.
Market downturn: be cautious about any concept or theme.
After confirming strength, look for the strongest performing sectors.
In that sector, just pick 1-2 coins with the cleanest charts and least resistance.
The longer the range of oscillation, the greater the surge afterwards - 'the longer it stays horizontal, the higher it rises.'
5. Support and resistance cheat sheet.
Support breaks down = 'floor' becomes 'ceiling', often smashed back down after a rebound.
The further away the resistance is from now, the weaker its power actually is - time will dilute emotions.
6. Volume is the buyer's weight scale.
No volume on the upside usually means a false move.
Even small volume down can slide all the way down, as gravity is naturally downward.
7. Stop loss: leave yourself an exit.
Set a stop loss the moment you place an order, do not give yourself an excuse to 'take another look.'
Did a false breakout sweep you out? If the pattern is still good, treat the transaction fee as insurance and buy back.
Aggressive strategy: stop loss close to the trend line; conservative strategy: split position into two, one close to the trend line, the other at previous lows.
8. Emotion management.
Making money inexplicably does not equal being skilled; it could just be a lucky guess.
Don't blame yourself for losing once according to the rules; that's tuition.
Review → improve → re-enter, don't let greed and fear pull you back and forth.
9. Shorting, be cautious.
Not every 'too much rise' can be shorted - wait for a key level to break and RS to drop into the negative zone.
Set stop losses like others, but don't fantasize about outrunning a surge.
10. Clearly recognize the four-phase cycle.
Bottom: 200-day line flattening, volume drying up - wait and see.
Uptrend: breaking above the 200-day line with volume - main upward wave, go boldly.
Top: sideways trading volume surges - time to flash out.
Downward trend: breaking support leads to new lows - keep your distance.
