#贸易战缓和

As of May 13, 2025, there are significant signs of easing in the China-U.S. trade war. In high-level closed-door talks held in Geneva, Switzerland from May 10 to 11, both sides reached a temporary 90-day tariff ceasefire agreement and established a permanent economic and trade consultation mechanism, laying the foundation for future cooperation.

📉 Tariff Adjustments and Agreement Content

Tariff Reduction: The United States will lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. Additionally, both sides agreed to suspend the implementation of an additional 24% tariff for a period of 90 days.

Non-Tariff Measures: China has committed to suspending or canceling non-tariff countermeasures against the United States starting from April 2, 2025.

Permanent Consultation Mechanism: Both sides have established a permanent economic and trade consultation mechanism, jointly led by the Chinese Vice Premier and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet and Trade Representative Jamison Greer, aimed at preventing future trade tensions from escalating.

📈 Market Reactions and Economic Impact

Following the agreement, global market reactions have been positive:

Stock Market Surge: U.S. stock markets surged significantly, with the S&P 500 index rising by 3.3% and the Nasdaq index increasing by 4.4%.

RMB Appreciation: The Renminbi strengthened against the U.S. dollar, with the offshore RMB exchange rate rising by more than 300 points.

Decline in Safe-Haven Assets: Gold prices dropped by 2.5%, reflecting a decrease in market risk-aversion sentiment.

🔍 Outlook and Challenges

Although this agreement brings short-term relief to China-U.S. trade relations, it still faces the following challenges:

Agreement Duration: The current tariff ceasefire agreement is only for 90 days, and it remains uncertain whether a long-term agreement can be reached in the future.

Structural Issues: There are still differences between both sides on structural issues such as technology transfer and intellectual property protection that need further negotiation to resolve.

Political Factors: The U.S. presidential election and political factors may affect the continuity of trade policies.