While everyone speculates whether Bitcoin has peaked, Michael Saylor throws out a thought-provoking explanation. 'A large amount of Bitcoin is stuck in the hands of the government, lawyers, and bankruptcy trustees.' This is not alarmism, but a direct statement he made during a podcast (Coin Stories) on May 9. He pointed out that Bitcoin is currently stagnating below $150,000, not because the market has lost momentum, but because it is undergoing a deep restructuring of its investor base.
Saylor refers to this as a 'market rotation period.' Non-long-term holders are cashing in profits during the rebound, while true long-term capital, institutional funds, and strategic allocations are slowly taking over. He emphasizes that this new batch of funds differs from past retail investors who chased highs and cut losses; they enter through ETFs, corporate asset allocations, or even national fiscal strategies, aiming not for the 'next wave of surge' but for lock-up management and long-term holding.
Assets remain still, prices stuck: Why has Bitcoin stalled at $100,000?
In early 2025, Bitcoin briefly surged to $109,000 on January 20, just before Trump was about to take office, but fell to $76,273 in April. Although it rebounded to above $100,000 on May 8 due to geopolitical tensions and tariff proposals, this round of recovery has yet to break the technical key level of $103,340. From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin is in a typical 'consolidation period':
Bollinger Bands Narrowing: Indicates a decrease in short-term volatility;
MACD Weakness: Momentum is weakening, and the market has not made a trend choice;
RSI Hovering Neutral: No evident buying or selling pressure.
The signals conveyed by these technical indicators are very clear: the market is temporarily 'at a crossroads,' waiting for the next direction to clarify. Traders are generally focused on two key positions: upper resistance at $103,340, which, if broken, may ignite a new round of increases; while lower support at $102,800, if lost, cannot rule out a short-term pullback.
However, the silence of price does not mean the exit of capital. Farside data shows that in the past 5 trading days, the spot Bitcoin ETF attracted a net inflow of $564.7 million.
The market is changing hands: short-term exit, long-term entry.
Saylor pointed out in an interview that the biggest change in the current market is the profound shift in Bitcoin's ownership structure. On one hand, a large amount of Bitcoin seized by the government, bankrupted, or frozen by legal proceedings cannot circulate, and these 'dead coins' constitute a ceiling for short-term liquidity; on the other hand, new funds are steadily absorbing the circulating Bitcoin supply through ETFs and corporate allocation plans.
Taking MicroStrategy, which he founded, as an example, the company currently holds 555,450 Bitcoins, with an average acquisition cost of $68,569. Based on current prices, the company's overall paper profit has exceeded 50%, with a total market value of over $57.2 billion. The presence of such giant funds inherently reduces market selling pressure while enhancing long-term support.
Saylor candidly stated that in the past, he did not believe the U.S. government would show signals of 'supporting Bitcoin' so quickly, but the fact is that although the government has not actively bought Bitcoin, the attitudes of cabinet members towards Bitcoin have significantly shifted.
From speculation to allocation: This is a structural transformation.
Currently, what truly supports Bitcoin's price is not retail investors' FOMO but rather institutionalized allocation mechanisms. Especially with the continuous expansion of the spot ETF, it is accelerating Bitcoin's transformation from a speculative asset to a 'digital gold' positioning.
If you want to perceive these structural liquidity changes more accurately, relying solely on price charts is no longer sufficient. Mlion.ai's on-chain address analysis and sentiment tracking module can provide critical support at this moment—
It is possible to identify the activity of key holding addresses to judge whether there are 'silent whales' entering the market;
Combining price prediction models and AI analysis of candlestick charts can simulate potential paths for prices after breaking key resistance levels;
The deep analysis function of news can also capture events that impact market sentiment in real-time, such as ETF subscription data, policy signals, and capital inflows.
When you see a price range stagnate, you might ask yourself: Is the price's stillness the 'end' or the 'beginning'?
Summary: Consolidation is not a decline; changing hands may be a rebirth.
Bitcoin currently seems to be 'stuck' around $100,000, but this feels more like a storage period rather than a recession signal. Saylor's judgment represents a deeper logic from an institutional perspective: as short-term funds withdraw and structural chips are locked in, Bitcoin is entering a more stable and resilient capital cycle.
This is not a retail frenzy but a game of handover among value believers. Those who truly win in this structural reconstruction are those who understand data, grasp emotions, and have the capacity to make scientific judgments.
If you wish to seize the opportunity at this turning point, Mlion.ai's AI chart analysis, price prediction, on-chain capital monitoring, and other functions will help you accurately identify the imminent 'signals' hidden behind seemingly calm market conditions.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!