This rebound of Ethereum is the prologue to a new round of rising momentum or a 'false breakout' of a peak followed by a drop? The market is waiting for direction.


After several months of downward trend, Ethereum (ETH) has finally emerged from its 'sleep mode'. Earlier this week, ETH price briefly touched a high of 2550 USD, successfully breaking through the downward resistance line since the end of 2023, and took down key resistance levels of 1950 USD and 2200 USD, creating strong bullish signals on the technical front.


However, as of May 13, the ETH price has slightly retreated, currently fluctuating around 2500 USD. Traders are beginning to reconsider: Can this breakout be sustained? Is the upward momentum of ETH sufficient to drive a new round of intermediate trends?



1. Initial Establishment of Trend Reversal, ETH Breaks Months of Downward Structure


From the daily level, Ethereum's strong rebound in the past week has already broken the downward trend line since December of last year, rapidly pushing the price from below 1800 USD up to nearly 2550 USD. This 'sharp rise' not only destroyed the previous bearish structure but also marked the preliminary establishment of a trend reversal on the technical front.


After entering the 2500-2600 USD region, ETH faces a dense supply zone from mid-March. If ETH stabilizes in this area, the probability of further advancing to 2750 or even 3000 USD will greatly increase.



2. Short-term Pressure Emerges, Key Support Zone Contested


However, in the short term, the market has begun to show divergence. From the 3-hour and 30-minute charts, ETH has already shown signs of a pullback:


  • A descending channel structure has formed in the short-term chart, indicating that ETH has currently entered a consolidation or mild retracement phase;


  • The RSI indicator has dropped to 45, with momentum significantly weakening;


  • The MACD histogram is flattening, showing signs of a death cross;


  • The Bollinger Bands are beginning to narrow, indicating reduced short-term volatility as the market enters consolidation.



However, at the same time, on the 4-hour chart, ETH prices remain above the 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA moving averages, indicating that the mid-term structure still leans bullish. In particular, the 20 EMA (2395 USD) and 50 EMA (2180 USD) constitute two important supports below; once a pullback occurs, it is very likely to become a new starting point for a rebound.



3. Overview of Key Technical Levels: Clear Upward/Retracement Paths


From the Fibonacci retracement perspective, measuring from the historical high of 4105 USD to the low of 1385 USD:


  • Currently, ETH is testing the 0.382 retracement level (2445 USD), and once it stabilizes,


  • The next upward target is the 0.5 retracement level (2755 USD),


  • If market sentiment continues to warm up, it may challenge the 0.618 retracement level (3066 USD), which is also a psychological barrier.



If ETH falls below the current support, it may retrace to 2395 USD or even deeper to test the 2180 USD level — where the previous resistance turns into support.


Key levels summary is as follows:








Region
Level (USD)
Technical Implications




Current Pressure Zone 2560 Pressure concentrated area, dense supply in March


Short-term Support 2450 Lower boundary of the downward channel


Strong Support 2395 EMA convergence area, short-term bull-bear dividing line


Key Risk Level 2180 Previous breakout level, losing this could trigger structural adjustments


Upward Target 1 2755 Fibonacci 0.5 level, structural breakout point


Upward Target 2 3066 0.618 FIB, psychological barrier






4. Can Momentum be Sustained? Focus on Macroeconomic and On-Chain Dynamics


Currently, while Ethereum's strong rebound has brought optimistic sentiment, whether it can be sustained depends on two dimensions:


1. Macroeconomic Market Sentiment


Stimulated by Trump's announcement of 'significant progress' in US-China trade talks, overall market risk appetite has risen, leading to a collective rebound in risk assets including Ethereum. However, the sustainability of such 'policy rallies' is often weak, and new uncertainty could trigger rapid fluctuations.


2. Support from Capital and On-Chain Data


Currently, on-chain data shows an increase in large ETH transfers and a rebound in transaction numbers, indicating a short-term capital inflow. However, to truly confirm the trend, sustained growth in trading volume and active wallets is still needed as support.


At this critical stage, investors especially need to use professional analysis tools to assist in judgment, such as through [Mlion.ai]'s trend prediction model, key support and pressure tracking system, and short-term capital flow charts, to grasp ETH's structural changes and potential risk points in real-time, avoiding losses due to high volatility.



5. Conclusion: Wait for Breakthrough or Guard Against Retracement?


In summary, Ethereum is currently at a critical juncture: the medium to long-term trend is beginning to strengthen, but short-term pressure is starting to emerge. If it can stabilize in the 2450-2500 range and break through 2560 USD, it is expected to further advance to 2750 USD and higher.


Conversely, if it loses 2395 USD or lower support, it is necessary to be cautious of the market returning to the consolidation zone and even testing the structural support line at 2180 USD.


At such times, avoiding blind chasing of prices and panic selling, while ensuring good data tracking and risk management, is key to achieving long-term returns. Using Mlion.ai's data dashboard and strategy analysis tools can help you identify trend inflection points and create a scientific operational rhythm.



#ETH

Disclaimer: The above content is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is risky, and caution is needed when entering!