Bitcoin has once again done what it does best — caused paranoia among traders, headaches for economists, and a slight tremor for the Fed. Because when you're trading at $104,300, and every sentiment indicator is screaming “come on, up!”, — you're either going up, or you're the US government trying to manage inflation. So, neither here nor there.
MACD on the weekly — if you don't know what that is, congratulations, you have a stable nervous system. But traders know: when MACD crosses in a bullish direction, it's like Jimmy Buffett and Ron Paul simultaneously saying “buy!”. So — that very signal is currently on the chart. And as one popular analyst said — “This is the most bullish signal of all bullish signals.”
And now — Bitcoin couldn't close above $104,500. What does that mean? Are the bulls stalling? Not quite. The market, like a true introvert, wants to be alone for a bit, to contemplate its life. But if the RSI is indeed showing bullish divergence — and it is — we will see a breakout upwards.
And here’s the news for you:
The USA and China seem not to be fighting right now.
Yes, this won’t last long. But for now, there’s a 90-day window, and rates have dropped to 10%, the market is digesting this as “an opportunity for growth”. The economy says thank you, stocks are moving, and Bitcoin — like a polite yet unpredictable guest — says: “Maybe I’ll grow a bit too?”
Meanwhile, the Fed…
The Fed continues to play 'guess the rate': a 15% chance of a cut in June is like finding a dollar under the rug in the White House. But in July — it's already 50/50.
Now about the sentiments:
Greed index — 70. People seem to want to buy, but they do it as if sneaking around, looking over their shoulders to see if any neighbors are watching. That's good.
98% of Bitcoins are in profit. This means that almost everyone is in the green. This is certainly great, but it reminds us of one simple thing: the market is not a charity. “When everyone is in profit — soon someone will be left without pants.”
Conclusion:
Bitcoin is on the brink.
If it breaks through $106K and consolidates — expect fireworks. A breakout above $109.8K will open doors to $120K, and maybe even $150K. But… If the CPI comes out hot, if Powell says even one wrong word — welcome back to $98K. And that's not scary. That's the market.
