Have you ever seen two fighting pandas suddenly stop, hug, and start trading smartphones and soy? No? Well, that happened in Geneva. China and the US - two economic titans with the habits of raccoons in a dumpster - suddenly decided to take a breather in their long, exhausting, and boring trade war.
• 145% tariffs? Goodbye. Now the US only takes 30% from Chinese goods.
• 125% Chinese tariffs on American goods? Also in the trash. Only a pathetic 10% remains.
• 90 days of truce. Like a vacation for two quarreling teenagers on TikTok - no one knows how it will end, but for now, it's fun.
• Futures on S&P 500 - up 2.8%.
Apparently, traders on the NYSE felt that they can finally buy an iPhone without fear that it will cost as much as a used Tesla.
• Dollar - up 0.7%.
Because the whole world wants green wrappers with the faces of dead presidents again.
• Gold - down 2.3%.
Well, of course. Without fear - there's no demand. And gold is the currency of fear.
Zhaojin Mining has already cried: down 7% in shares.
Apple, the beloved corporation that cares about human rights... if a person is a consumer with an iPhone, urgently reviewing supply chains. In the future, your iPhones might be assembled not in China, but in Vietnam or India. Well, Siri will have an accent. Be ready.
But, as always, there is one 'but'.
This agreement is like a diet before New Year: looks nice, but not for long. 90 days is enough time to learn how to cook ramen, but hardly enough to resolve systemic trade disputes accumulated over decades.
This is not peace. This is a breather. China and the US take a sip of water before they start hitting each other again with numbers, sanctions, and jokes at G20 summits.
Who should be happy?
• For investors. Especially those who woke up in time and didn't invest in gold.
• For manufacturers. It's possible to transport parts again without customs hysteria.
• For consumers. The iPhone won't become more expensive, at least until the next version.
• And to the fans of the 'apocalypse of dollar hegemony' - condolences. Today is not your day.