Hello, I am Aiden, and this is Crypto Evangelist.
From macro, fundamental, and technical perspectives, we will comprehensively interpret the crypto market.
1) Market review
Last week, under the positive news from the US-UK and China-US tariff negotiations + Trump's call to quickly buy stocks,
BTC breaks through $100,000, ETH surges 40%.
Is the main rising wave about to come? Will there be a pullback?
2) Macro perspective
In the short term, the postponement of tariffs + strong employment data has completely ended the recession trade.
Trump has also called for action, so let's welcome the president's birthday on June 14!
However, in the medium term, it is still very pessimistic, beware of the artificial M-top.
1) The US debt crisis has not been resolved, and there is still a risk of liquidity squeeze. The high 10-year yield also brings a downward risk appetite at any time, especially when inflation data rebounds.
2) Interest rate cut expectations are also being delayed, with rates still relatively high at over 4 points; historically, the probability of high rates not triggering a recession is very low.
3) Tariffs will ultimately transmit to economic data, this year is very similar to 2018. Trade war - stock market crashes, trade agreement - hits historical highs, economic issues and the Fed's dilemma - crash again around December 2018 to new lows.
Recovery of recession expectations brings a rebound in the right shoulder of the M-top. The main contradiction in the market will gradually return to interest rate cuts and liquidity, with rising inflation or renewed recession risks potentially marking the end of the rebound, welcoming the final crash.
1) Interest rate cut rhythm
Tariffs were postponed beyond expectations, and recession worries further dissipated.
The restart of interest rate cuts has also been lowered from last week's July to September, with the probability of a rate cut in July being only 43%, down from 58% last week. The total number of rate cuts for the year has also been lowered to 2 times.
2) Dollar liquidity
Liquidity is not abundant; altcoins can only rebound along with Bitcoin. This wave of profits still needs to be swapped for Bitcoin.
In the short term, the TGA account can still inject some liquidity into the market, but after the new debt ceiling is established in Q3, there will be significant pressure on market liquidity.
3) Exchange rate and interest rate
The yen has confirmed strong support at 140 again and is currently entering a fluctuating upward range, with funds still flowing back to the US.
The economy is strengthening, and the 10-year US Treasury yield confirms strong support at 4.15% before continuing to rise, with funds flowing from US Treasuries to risk assets.
4) VIX and US stocks
VIX plummets, and panic sentiment in the US stock market clears quickly.
Nasdaq futures have broken the 326 high, the next target is a new high.
5) Funding rates and ETFs
BTC contract funding rates are at a low level, the market is not yet sufficiently FOMO, and arbitrage funds have not yet entered significantly.
The net inflow scale of BTC ETFs is acceptable, but the net inflow scale of ETH ETFs is not good. The main force behind this surge may not be Wall Street institutions.
6) On-site liquidity
The market share support level for stablecoins at 5% has been broken, and the next target is 3.8% in December. The market trend is to exchange stablecoins for various tokens.
BTC's market share has also broken down, with the first target being 61%. Altcoins may perform stronger than Bitcoin in the short term, leading to a dead cat bounce.
3) Fundamentals
This year's main narrative is the increase in Bitcoin's consensus and the development of the Web3 ecosystem.
Bitcoin has its own fundamental logic relative to US stocks, namely that the consensus on countering the fiat currency system like gold is accelerating. This year is mainly led by the US government (especially Bitcoin's strategic reserves, which we will keep a close eye on).
Trump brings regulatory shifts + a loose interest rate environment, both of which are favorable for Web3 innovation.
1) New Hampshire becomes the first US state to pass a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, allowing 5% of state public funds to be invested in Bitcoin. The state's political stance is that it belongs to swing states, with a Republican governor and the Republican party controlling both the state House and Senate. The passing of the bill indicates that the Republican party is pushing for the rapid passage of crypto legislation.
2) Futu Niu Niu officially announces support for BTC, ETH, and USDT deposit services. One app realizes one-click switching between Hong Kong and US stocks, funds, bonds, and virtual assets, greatly lowering the threshold, and new funds are coming in!
3) Strategy announces a new $42 billion financing plan and raises BTC yield from 15% to 25%. Last year, MicroStrategy raised a total of $42 billion in financing, becoming the largest player in the market. In the first quarter of 2025, they issued new shares, convertible bonds, and preferred shares to raise $7.7 billion, and by the end of the quarter, they had essentially spent it all, currently holding 550,000 BTC. This year is even more exaggerated, as the first quarter report just announced doubling to $84 billion! To be honest, with such a large scale, state reserves and spot ETFs are all small players in front of it. Huge liabilities and bubble risks are increasing, and competitors are also increasing. Do you still believe it this time?
4) The Ethereum mainnet completes the Pectra upgrade. Vitalik suggests replacing the Ethereum virtual machine (EVM) with RISC-V, making Ethereum extremely concise, elegant, and secure like Bitcoin! Performance could improve by 100 times without affecting security, and development will become simpler.
5) In the first quarter of 2025, VC invested $4.8 billion in cryptocurrency and blockchain startups (up 54% quarter-on-quarter), completing a total of 446 transactions (up 7.5% quarter-on-quarter). Perhaps VC's spring is coming soon.
4) Technical aspects and other indicators
1) Weekly:
The weekly MACD has golden crossed!
The last time was Trump's victory in November 2024.
The last time was the ETF's entry in February 2024.
The previous time was the interest rate cut expectation in October 2023.
Every time it leads to a main rising wave, the time is around 4-6 weeks, so everyone should plan to escape at the peak!
Although I always feel this is a dead cat bounce, this jump may last for a month.
The expected benefits include continued easing of tariffs, CPI below expectations, Trump calling for action, but it seems these are not as compelling as the logic during the first three golden crosses.
But Trump can give you unlimited possibilities, after all, his birthday is also about a month away.
2) Daily: A volume increase is not very healthy, but it is still in a fluctuating upward range, with certain pressure at new high positions of 106,000-108,000.
3) Liquidation map
In the short term, there is a large amount of short liquidity to be cleared at the upper levels of 106,000-108,000. Shorts are still probing the top, which is a good thing. However, there is also a gradual accumulation of long liquidity to be cleared at lower levels.
4) Fear and greed index
Rising to 70+
The last time was Trump's victory in November 2024.
The last time was the Ethereum ETF hype in May 2024.
The last time was the ETF's entry in February 2024.
The last time was the interest rate cut expectation in October 2023.
5) AHR999
Long-term, still in the dollar-cost averaging range.
5) Summary
From a macro perspective, looking at the M-top, short-term recession expectations are being repaired while welcoming Trump's birthday with a right shoulder pattern. June and July may see the last real crash due to rising inflation and renewed recession risks.
Fundamentals are trending upwards, and good news is gradually being released.
From a technical perspective, there is pressure at the new high position in the short term, but the weekly trend has emerged, potentially welcoming a main rising wave.
Overall, a main rising wave may be coming in the short term, but it belongs to a dangerous situation. Depending on individual risk preferences, one can choose grid trading for stability or options for leverage.
Okay, that's all for this episode. Thank you for listening. Crypto Evangelist focuses on entry-level teaching and in-depth investment research in the crypto space, helping you gain an advantage! See you next time!