📊【2025.5.13 Global Market Commentary】—— Short-term optimism, long-term caution, the real show is yet to come

✅1. US Stocks: Emotional uplift, but undercurrents are stirring

Last night's CPI data was mildly lower than expected, leading to a slight market expectation of an earlier interest rate cut, with indices generally rising.

Short-term bearish signals are not obvious, market sentiment leans optimistic, paying attention to two potential positives:

Institutions largely missed this round, the risk of being passively squeezed is increasing;

There is a Call Wall above, and once breached, short covering could accelerate the upward movement.

Risk warning:

As of 5.12, the Fed's latest stance is hawkish; even if trade tensions temporarily ease, remain vigilant of the risks of inflation and recession overlapping.

After the China-US negotiations, Trump's comments towards Europe, India's WTO complaints, and other geopolitical disturbances are temporarily ignored by the market, but sudden negative events should be monitored.

✅2. US Treasuries: Yield critical point, increasing long-short divergence

10Y Treasury yield reached 4.5%, 30Y reached 4.95%, bulls are eager to act.

Many large funds have set psychological price levels for bullish positions around 10Y 4.5% and 30Y 5%.

✅3. Gold: Stabilized, but the storm is not far away

Current technical patterns can be seen as both a double top risk and a pullback to key support levels.

Trump's recent high-profile visit to Saudi Arabia, frequently praising Mohammed bin Salman, and repeatedly mentioning the Iran issue—geopolitical tensions are rising, and the chaotic era has not truly begun.

✅4. VIX Volatility: Space compressed, sentiment extremely optimistic

Yesterday, UVIX dropped to a low of 26, just a step away from the third position at 25.

The VIX index has fallen to 18.39, with limited further downside, indicating that future UVIX losses will largely come from market gains and time value erosion.

✅5. Exchange Rate: Dollar logic switching

The US dollar index is weakening, as the market digests the positives from the China-US negotiations, but other countries have not received similar treatment.

Given the current attitude towards Europe and India, the attractiveness of US Treasuries and the US dollar is marginally decreasing.

✅6. Cryptocurrency Market: Strengthening along with trends, but still sentiment-driven trading

Lower-than-expected CPI directly boosts market risk appetite, with the cryptocurrency market reaching a new high of 104,000.

Strategy suggestion:

In the short term, continue to be bullish, but pay attention to the emotional turning point; once US stock market sentiment shifts, cryptocurrency pullbacks may become more severe.