#贸易战缓和 #Strategy增持比特币 (as of 2025/05/12 19:50)

First, let me summarize for you brothers:

The short-term stop drop rebound structure has emerged, and there is momentum to test the pressure at 104500~105000; however, the medium-term long-short game is still intense, and if it cannot effectively break through 105800 upwards, it will enter a repeated oscillation pattern. The main force is washing positions for profits, beware of high traps.



📌 Overview of the core structure of the market: We analyze and interpret from 7 dimensions: cycle, trend, direction, trend strength, main force control, emotional state, and strategy recommendations:

1 minute: weak rebound, weak, main force testing, fear alleviating, do not chase after a spike, watch more and act less.

5 minutes: weak rebound, mid, control over positions, fear turning to neutral, ☆ can attempt light short positions.

15 minutes: oscillation biased towards strong, mid, liquidity control, slightly optimistic ⭐⭐⭐, pay attention to 104500 pressure.

1 hour: Weak oscillation biased towards long, mid, and main forces oscillating to wash positions, recovering ⭐⭐⭐, stop loss below 103500, short-term long speculation.

4 hours: Medium-term upward momentum accumulation, slightly strong, continuation washing control, oscillation warming up ⭐⭐⭐⭐, if it breaks 104800, you can increase long positions.

Daily: Upward channel oscillation, intense competition between long and short with increasing divergence ⭐⭐, ☆ oscillation is biased towards long, key point 105800.


▶️ Multi-period trend resonance analysis:


1h~4h: Oscillation consolidation within an upward channel, the price is still above the EMA/WMA, the biased long structure has not been broken.


K-line structure: 4-hour small bullish line relay, trading volume moderately increased, there is rebound momentum but not strong.


The daily EMA trend still supports the price within a medium-term upward trajectory.



📈 Detailed explanation of technical indicators (key indicators):


MACD (4h) DIF: 1439.7 / DEA: 1176.2 / BAR: +263.5 bullish momentum is slowly increasing, signs of short-term oscillation warming.

KDJ (4h) K: 36.9 / D: 47.5 / J: 15.7 A bottom golden cross is approaching, indicating a rebound signal.

RSI (4h) RSI(6): 51.9 / RSI(24): 62.2 biased towards long, has not yet become overbought.

MFI (1D) 88.1 (overbought), daily funds show signs of overdrawing, may spike high and then retreat.

OBV (1D/4h) gradually rising, funds are starting to flow in, BOLL (4h) upper track 104867 / middle track 103688, current rebound direction is upward towards the middle track, testing the upper track momentum is still insufficient.

VWAP current price oscillates near VWAP, institutional cost area is sideways.



💰 Main force vs. retail investors game structure analysis:


▶️ Account and position structure:
Indicator data interpretation contract open interest $8.67B (rising) significant increase, new funds are participating in the game.

Long/Short Position Ratio 1.68 (heavy long) positions are biased towards long, need to guard against long traps (brother, don't be impulsive).

Long/Short Ratio 0.62 (retail investors biased towards short) the main force is either luring shorts or constructing a washing structure (the dog is really a dog).



📉 Long-short behavior pattern analysis (luring longs/washing positions/engulfing structure)


The daily MFI has entered overbought territory, making a significant breakout by the main force unlikely, but they will use sentiment to create short-term spikes to lure traders in.

The current 4h structure shows a rebound repair, but the OBV has not formed a new high, and there is a possibility of a downward probe to 102800 after a potential lure.


If it breaks 104800 and stabilizes, the short-term long trend can extend to 105800~106200; conversely, if it breaks below 103500, the trend will weaken.



🔮 Future trend script deduction + verification conditions


📈 Continue to rebound and test the upper track, effectively holding above 104800: 105000→105800→106200, holding long positions, taking some profit at 105800.

⏸ Oscillation washing positions repeatedly fluctuating between 104200~103400, operating within the repeated lure areas, primarily buying low and selling high.

📉 After a spike and retreat, breaking support below 103500, testing 102800 / deeper 101500, empty positions to observe or speculate on short-term shorts, light position operation.
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