The Geneva Agreement has been implemented, global capital is celebrating, how many days are left in the bargain hunting window?
[The first shot in the market: Agreement landing = risk asset carnival? ]
The "substantial progress" in the Sino-US trade negotiations is like a shot in the arm, directly igniting the long sentiment of global risk assets. According to the joint statement, the two sides will cancel 91% of the additional tariffs and suspend 24% of the tariffs for 90 days. This unexpected "tariff relaxation" not only eases the pressure on the supply chain, but also releases a positive signal for the recovery of global trade. Bitcoin (BTC) quickly broke through $104,000 after the announcement of the news, with a 24-hour increase of more than 3%, and Ethereum (ETH) also rebounded to above $2,500. Market analyst Rekt Capital even predicted that BTC may hit a record high of $110,000 in the short term.
Logical analysis: The easing of trade frictions has reduced the risk of a "hard landing" of the global economy, and funds have shifted from safe-haven assets (such as US bonds) to high-risk areas. As a liquidity-sensitive asset, the crypto market has benefited first from the reversal of market sentiment. Data shows that CME Bitcoin futures open interest has risen to $14.8 billion, approaching the historical peak, and the entry signal of institutional investors has become clearer.
[Long-term variables: the "new narrative" of encryption under the Sino-US game]
Despite the short-term positives, crypto investors need to pay attention to two long-term trends:
1. The dividend of global supply chain reconstruction: The agreement mentions "establishing a normalized economic and trade consultation mechanism", which means that the uncertainty of Sino-US trade policy will be partially eliminated. The cost of US-related export enterprises (such as optical modules and new energy) will decrease, and the profit recovery may promote the application of related blockchain technologies (such as supply chain finance and cross-border payments).
2. The "undercurrent" of US dollar liquidity: If inflationary pressure eases after the US suspends tariffs, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may be brought forward. The liquidity easing cycle + the cooling of risk aversion demand = the valuation of crypto assets has risen. Historical data shows that after the first phase of the China-US agreement in 2019, Bitcoin rose by more than 200%, and this cycle may be more explosive.
[Trader strategy: ambush the "protocol derivative track"] Bottom-picking direction
Bitcoin ETF and compliance standards: The U.S. Treasury Department mentioned that it will promote "customized trade agreements" or accelerate the improvement of the crypto regulatory framework. Listed companies holding BTC (such as Strategy and MARA) may become the focus of capital speculation.
RWA (real world asset) track: Tariff reductions are beneficial to commodity trade, and the demand for stablecoins and supply chain tokens anchored to gold and crude oil (such as MakerDAO's DAI) may surge.
China-US Concept Chain: The agreement emphasizes "encouraging two-way investment", and cross-border payment protocols (such as Ripple) and trade financing chains (such as VeChain) may usher in policy catalysis.
Risk Warning
Variables in the 90-day "ceasefire period": If subsequent negotiations reach a deadlock, the 24% tariff may be restarted and market sentiment may reverse dramatically.
Trump's crypto-related companies are under scrutiny: If the Senate's investigation into Trump's crypto projects escalates, it may cause a short-term regulatory panic.
[The ultimate suspense of the joint statement: "Hidden Terms" in the Crypto Market? ]
Although the agreement does not directly mention cryptocurrencies, two major details are worth pondering: 1. The cancellation of "non-tariff countermeasures": China's previous restrictions on US technology companies may be loosened, which may pave the way for blockchain technology cooperation (such as cross-border CBDC). 2. "Structural issues" remain to be resolved: contradictions such as technical barriers and data sovereignty have not yet been resolved, and the "anti-censorship" attributes of decentralized networks (such as DeFi and privacy coins) may gain attention again.
【Conclusion: Has the “starting gun” of the second wave of the bull market been fired? 】
The Geneva Agreement is not only a turning point in Sino-US relations, but also a key springboard for the crypto market to move from the "shadow of geopolitical games" to the "mainstream narrative". In the short term, $100,000 to $110,000 may be the "new starting point" for BTC; in the long term, the reconstruction of the global trade order will give rise to the deep binding of Web3 and the real economy. The only question is - is your position ready to welcome this "policy dividend"?
Risk Warning: The views in this article are for reference only, DYOR (Do Your Own Research). The market is risky, so be cautious when investing.
(Data source: CoinJournal, Bihai Finance, HTX Research)
