Will the mutual 24% tariffs between China and the U.S. be suspended for 90 days? The tariffs benefit from China-U.S. relations take effect, what will the market speculate next?
In a joint statement following the China-U.S. economic and trade press conference in Geneva, both sides agreed to significantly reduce the raised tariffs "for a period of 90 days".
The U.S. side has suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff on April 2, 2025, while retaining a 10% tariff; the U.S. has canceled the retaliatory tariffs announced on April 8 and 9, 2025 — overall, tariffs on Chinese goods will be reduced from 145% to 30%.
Affected by this news, U.S. stock futures and Bitcoin have shown an upward trend.
Currently, the expectations for tariff benefits have materialized, what will the market speculate next? Will Bitcoin reach new highs or form a double top?
Personally, I think, from the trend perspective:
Despite BTC showing a divergence trend, it is still not time to be bearish. In the short term, as long as it hasn't dropped below 102,000, I believe the spot can still be held, with a possibility of further upward movement.
The U.S. stock market can also pay attention to the performance of MicroStrategy (MSTR), which has formed a very standard double bottom structure, corresponding to an upward target position of about 4.5%. If the Nasdaq returns to the level of February 25, then BTC may still have upward space. It is clear that BTC and the U.S. stock market still have a strong correlation at least up to now.
After reaching the target position, BTC should be watched closely. If no obvious pullback occurs, it should happen within this week.
Let the bullets fly for a while longer.
With the tariffs in place, what will the market speculate next? Interest rate cuts?
CPI data will be released at 4 PM on Tuesday afternoon, which reflects inflation conditions and directly relates to whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and the market will definitely react.
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve's Waller will speak, and if he releases any hints, both the stock market and the crypto market will be affected.
Thursday will be the most exciting, with retail data, manufacturing index, and PPI inflation data released at 4 PM, followed by Powell personally taking the stage ten minutes later. This old man can cause a market stir with just a few words.
If you have positions, it's best not to sleep too deeply in these days.
Overall, if we want to continue pushing upward, we need to see if there are new stories to tell or whether Ethereum's staking ETF will be provided. This wave clearly shows that only Ethereum can rise substantially, allowing altcoins to flourish; Bitcoin will only siphon funds, while Ethereum can truly bring about profitable effects for altcoins.