The air force is accumulating fuel. Today, the long-short ratio during the day is still 49 to 51. After several hours of sideways movement, the long-short ratio has almost become 1 to 1. One can only say that the air force still has money. Let's analyze the mentality of retail investors:
1. Those who are breaking even: They might think that after holding for so long, they have finally broken even, so they quickly close their positions, resulting in selling Ethereum.
2. Those who made money in this wave: Having made so much profit, they quickly sell during the sideways movement, thinking that after such a big one-day increase, there should be a correction. They then short, resulting in selling Ethereum and going short.
3. Those holding short positions: They might think that since it has risen so much, how much higher can it go? They add some margin to continue holding.
4. Those who previously sold at the bottom: Wow! Ethereum has risen so much, and I sold at a loss before. I didn’t benefit at all, and I feel wronged. I must short it. Now going long would make it seem like my previous loss was foolish, resulting in going short.
Now, let's analyze the thoughts of the big players:
In the previous half year, they smashed the market and basically wiped out the retail investors, collecting low-priced chips. If they are to pump the price, it must be quick to prevent retail investors from reacting. Once they reach a key level, the air force's fuel will be nearly exhausted, coupled with increased selling pressure, the cost-effectiveness of pumping will not be high. At this time, sideways movement or a slight correction allows retail investors to ferment their thoughts as mentioned above, accumulating fuel for shorting. After selling pressure has diminished, they will pump the price aggressively. A major correction is not possible now; retail investors are all thinking: 'Oh, it has risen so high, and I haven’t participated at all. I must enter during a correction.' If most think this way, the big players will certainly not do that. Why should I work hard to pump the price and then allow you to enter on a correction!
Therefore, based on the combined mentality of retail investors and big players, the future development is likely to be: sideways or a slight correction, followed by a continued aggressive pump. It must be a quick pump, and just when retail investors think about entering, it will immediately start to move sideways again. Then most retail investors will start to hesitate or short, and this cycle will continue until the majority of retail investors realize they should go long, which will signal that we are basically at the top.
