1. Inflation and Monetary Policy Adjustment
A significant drop in drug prices will ease core inflation pressure in the U.S. (especially in consumer electronics and pharmaceuticals), which may prompt the Federal Reserve to start the rate cut cycle more quickly. The current cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive to interest rate policies, and easing expectations may divert some funds into inflation-resistant assets like Bitcoin (referencing the volatility pattern after cryptocurrencies rebounded due to weak economic data in August 2024).
2. Capital Flow Effect in the Stock Market
Pharmaceutical sector stock prices are under pressure (e.g., Hong Kong pharmaceutical stocks have seen a collective drop), which may lead some investors to turn to cryptocurrencies for excess returns. However, one must be wary of systemic risk spreading; if U.S. stocks decline overall due to policy uncertainty, it may trigger panic selling across markets].
II. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure and Debt Game
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1. Adjustment of Government Expenditure Structure
Estimated savings of 'tens of trillions of dollars' in healthcare spending, if used for infrastructure or technology subsidies, could boost confidence in the real economy, indirectly benefiting tokens focused on blockchain technology applications; if used for debt hedging, attention must be paid to the impact of U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations on the cryptocurrency market (similar to China's selling of U.S. Treasuries impacting tariff negotiations as a 'surrounding Wei to rescue Zhao' strategy).
2. Redistribution of Regulatory Resources in the Industry
The U.S. government may shift more regulatory resources towards drug price enforcement, temporarily easing the pressure on cryptocurrencies (referencing the severe market fluctuations during the regulatory vacuum period of the Mentougou incident in July 2024]).
III. Industry Chain Linkage and Technological Integration
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1. Acceleration of Blockchain Medical Applications
The demand for drug price transparency may drive the pharmaceutical supply chain to adopt blockchain technology for tracking drug circulation (such as tracing the pricing path of generic drugs), benefiting tokens focused on supply chain management like FIL and VET.
2. Shift in AI Pharmaceutical Investment
Compression of pharmaceutical profits may lead to reduced investment in AI drug development, with some capital potentially shifting to the intersection of AI and blockchain (such as decentralized computing power leasing), stimulating demand for related tokens.
IV. Short-term Trading Behavior Disturbance
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1. Increased Leverage Risk
Volatility in U.S. stocks after policy announcements may trigger a chain liquidation of cryptocurrency leveraged contracts (referencing the extreme case on March 4, 2025, when Bitcoin fell 11% in a single day, leading to 310,000 liquidations).
2. Reconstructing Arbitrage Strategies
If the 'Most Favored Nation Drug Price' policy leads to changes in the cross-border healthcare payment system, the use of stablecoins in cross-border settlements may expand, stimulating an increase in trading volume for USDT and USDC.
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Summary: The impact of this policy on cryptocurrencies shows a bidirectional effect of 'short-term liquidity shock' and 'long-term ecological restructuring'. Key attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's June interest rate decision regarding adjustments to rate cut expectations, and the SEC's regulatory attitude changes towards blockchain healthcare application projects. It is recommended that investors refer to the 'risk-hedging asset allocation model', adopting hedging strategies during volatility cycles.
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