1. Core outcomes of the meeting

  • Establishing a 'China-US Economic and Trade Business Mechanism': Both sides agree to establish a regular communication channel, clarify leaders, and regularly discuss trade, technology, market access, and other issues.

  • Joint statement to be released soon: Details announced on May 12 may involve tariffs, technological sanctions, investment restrictions, etc. If a easing signal is released, it will directly boost risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).

2. Potential impacts on the crypto market

✅ Short-term bullish (1-3 months)

  • Risk sentiment warming: If China-US relations ease, global funds may flow from safe-haven assets (like the US dollar and US Treasury bonds) to high-risk areas (like US stocks and cryptocurrencies).

  • Bitcoin's 'link to US stocks' effect: The correlation between the crypto market and US stocks remains high. If tech stocks (like Nasdaq) rise due to trade easing, Bitcoin may follow suit.

  • Expectations for Chinese capital flow: If China relaxes capital controls or crypto-related restrictions (like Hong Kong ETF progress), it may stimulate buying in Asia.

🚀 Key variables for the medium to long term (need to observe subsequent details)

  • Technical sanctions and mining chip: If the US relaxes semiconductor export restrictions to China, the supply chain for mining machine manufacturers (like Bitmain) will improve, and the decrease in computing power costs will benefit the mining ecosystem.

  • RMB exchange rate fluctuations: If the trade agreement involves exchange rate clauses, it may affect the stability of the RMB, prompting some capital to seek refuge through stablecoins (USDT).

  • Regulatory cooperation signals: If the joint statement mentions 'jointly combating illegal finance', it may temporarily suppress anonymous coins (like Monero), but mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) may benefit from compliance.

3. Trader response strategies

  • Focus on the May 12 statement: Pay close attention to keywords such as 'technological cooperation', 'capital flow', and 'joint regulation'.

  • Layout relevant assets:

  • Bitcoin/Ethereum: Prioritize allocation if risk sentiment warms up.

  • Beware of black swans: If negotiations change unexpectedly, the crypto market may quickly give back gains, so stop-loss measures should be set.

"Short-term looks at sentiment, long-term looks at policy" - This meeting pressed the 'pause button' on the China-US game, but the sustainability of the crypto market depends on subsequent details (such as the approval of Hong Kong ETFs and Federal Reserve policies). It is recommended to play event-driven with light positions and keep enough bullets to respond to volatility.

📊 Technical indicator signals

  • KDJ: K-line (53.59) crosses below D-line (58.98), short-term bearish, but not oversold (J value 42.81).

  • MACD: Death cross state (DIF < DEA), but green bars shrink (-435.2), indicating weakened downward momentum.

  • RSI: 6-hour RSI (51.27) is neutral, with no overbought or oversold signals.

5.12 Bitcoin operation suggestions:

Entry point: 103,600 - 103,800

First profit target 104200, second profit target 105200

Follow me for specific operation points; I will guide you to explore tenfold potential coins!

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