Weekly level: Significant breakthrough, initial signs of trend reversal appearing.
Huge bullish candle surge: Last week ETH rose over 45%, with trading volume doubling, indicating strong bullish involvement, and there remains upward momentum in the short term.
Key resistance level: Weekly MA30 ($2695) still constitutes pressure, the price must break through and stabilize above this level for at least 3 weeks to confirm a trend reversal.
MACD golden cross formed: The fast and slow lines completed a golden cross below the zero axis, with downward momentum exhausting, initiating a medium-term rebound.
Trend prediction: Due to the significant weekly increase, the probability of continued growth is low; it is more likely to peak and then enter a 1-2 week wide oscillation before gathering strength for another attack.
Daily level: Short-term overbought, waiting for a pullback opportunity.
High-level stagnation signal: Daily candle closed as a small bearish candle, with trading volume shrinking by nearly 50%, indicating insufficient short-term buying momentum and a need for a pullback.
Technical indicator divergence: MACD shows weakened momentum above the zero axis, and the price is far from the daily MA30, caution is advised against false breakout risks.
Trading strategy:
Avoid chasing highs: Wait for a pullback to support levels to position long trades, focusing on the $2440-2160 zone (1H/4H EMA52).
Short-term short-selling opportunity: If it rises to the resistance zone of $2695-2890, consider shorting, but enter and exit quickly.
Key level reminder:
Resistance levels: $2695 → $2890 → $3065 → $3260
Support levels: $2440 → $2240 → $2160 → $2000
12-hour level: Upward momentum waning, risk of pullback increasing.
Current 12-hour MACD shows a top divergence, raising doubts about the sustainability of the upward movement, and a short-term pullback to support is possible. However, the medium-term trend is strengthening, and after adjustment, it remains a good opportunity for buying on dips.
Summary: The ETH weekly level rebound has started, but in the short term, it needs to digest profit-taking. The ideal trend is to peak and then oscillate to gather strength. The trading strategy is to primarily buy on pullbacks, and light shorting can be attempted in the resistance area. Final confirmation of the trend reversal requires breaking through and stabilizing above the weekly MA30 ($2695).
