Written by: Trend Research
Since the report from Trend Research was released on April 24, 2025, ETH has risen from $1,800 to around $2,400, with an increase of about 30% in one month. The prediction before the writing of the report started at $1,450. As a trillion-scale asset target, it is a rare opportunity for large funds to achieve high returns in the short term. The main reasons for the firm bullish outlook at that time included: ETH still possesses robust financial data, its status as an important infrastructure in crypto remains unchanged; the significant adjustment of the short-term high point (with a drop of over 60% in 4 months); the large scale of shorts in the derivatives market, which, after the bottom spot volume increased, climbed to important support and resistance exchange zones, along with the continuous layout of traditional finance and gradual inflow of ETFs. Currently, our prediction for ETH is that, in the long term, it may break through $5,000, and in an optimistic scenario, if BTC rises to over $300,000 in this cycle, ETH is expected to rise to $10,000 and will capture related opportunities in the ETH ecosystem in the long term.
One, valuation predictions for ETH.
An important context for the new valuation of ETH is the capture of the trend of integration between key digital assets and traditional finance. We observe that BTC, as the most important digital asset, has opened the door for being included as a strategic reserve asset by various U.S. states after the approval of the spot ETF, gradually becoming a strategic alternative to the expansion of dollar assets to a certain extent. It currently ranks sixth in global asset market value, with the U.S. BTC spot ETF currently managing about $118.6 billion in assets, accounting for approximately 6% of Bitcoin's total market value. The trend of integration between crypto assets and traditional finance is no longer in doubt. CZ stated in an interview in Dubai in May that Bitcoin's price could reach $500,000 to $1 million in this market cycle.
ETH currently still possesses robust financial data, and its status as the most important infrastructure in crypto finance remains unchanged. The total TVL of Ethereum DeFi is about $60 billion, accounting for over 53% of the global DeFi market, with a stablecoin market value of $124 billion, accounting for over 50% of the global total stablecoin market value. The total AUM of Ethereum ETFs is $7.2 billion, and BlackRock's tokenized money market fund BUIDL has an investment scale of about $2.7 billion in the Ethereum ecosystem, accounting for 92% of its total assets.
ETH quickly dropped to around $1,300 after reaching three peaks at $4,000 in 2024, with an ATH of over $4,800. Based on the following potential factors, we predict that ETH price will touch $5,000 in this cycle:
The imminent end of U.S. QT and the potential start of further interest rate cuts.
The new SEC chair may bring breakthroughs in the advancement of ETH on-chain tokenization and staking-related bills.
Management and route repair of the ETH Foundation, maintaining a certain level of infrastructural innovation.
Maintaining a steadily growing on-chain financial ecosystem.
With long-term optimistic predictions, ETH is expected to challenge $10,000 in the new cycle, needing to meet the following conditions:
BTC rises above $300,000.
ETH brings remarkable infrastructural innovation beneficial to DeFi.
U.S. institutions are pushing ETH to become an important native venue for asset tokenization.
Demonstration effects drive global asset tokenization.
Two, three ETH ecosystem projects that cannot be ignored.
1. UNI (Uniswap): The largest DEX protocol in the crypto market.
Uniswap is the earliest and largest Dex protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of $4.7 billion and a daily trading volume exceeding $2 billion, generating $900 million in revenue annually. UNI is fully circulating, with about 40% locked for governance, and currently has a circulating market value of $4 billion, with an FDV of $6.6 billion.
Currently, there is a certain decoupling between UNI's token economics design and protocol revenue, as the income generated by the protocol is not automatically distributed to UNI token holders. UNI mainly serves as a governance token, allowing holders to vote on the use of the treasury, which can indirectly have a positive effect on the UNI price through governance proposals, such as the DAO voting to repurchase 10 million UNI in 2024.
The decoupling between protocol revenue and token yield is mainly due to the previous SEC's risk considerations regarding the regulatory classification of securities. Currently, with the gradual loosening and regularization of crypto regulation in the U.S., UNI's protocol distribution may have upgrade potential in the future.
Recent major developments in Uniswap include the expansion of Uniswap V4 and Unichain, and the preliminary activation of the 'Fee Switch' mechanism.
2. AAVE (Aave): The largest lending protocol in the crypto market.
AAVE is the largest lending protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of $23 billion, generating $450 million in revenue annually, and tokens are 100% in circulation, currently valued at $3.3 billion.
Similar to UNI's situation, the protocol's revenue is not directly related to AAVE's dividends but rather indirectly influenced through governance.
Recent major developments in Aave include the development of Aave V4, cross-chain expansion of the native stablecoin GHO, and advancing the Horizon project for RWA business exploration.
3. ENA (Ethena): The largest synthetic stablecoin protocol in the crypto market.
Since 2025, Ethena's synthetic dollar USDe has become the third largest dollar-pegged asset in the crypto market, with an issuance scale only second to USDT and USDC, and USDe is also the only synthetic stablecoin among them. In terms of revenue, Ethena is also a highly profitable DeFi protocol, generating $315 million in revenue per year. ENA currently has a market value of $2.18 billion and an FDV of $5.6 billion.
Recently, Ethena has made integrated business progress: Ethena and Securitize will collaborate to launch the 'Converge' blockchain network, aiming to bridge traditional finance and DeFi, plan to launch stablecoin product iUSDe for traditional financial institutions, integrate its stablecoin sUSDe into the Telegram application, and is also building an ecosystem based on its stablecoin sUSDe, including a perpetual and spot exchange Ethereal based on its own application chain and an on-chain options and structured products protocol Derive.
