There is a divergence in the current market regarding whether the altcoin season has arrived. On-chain data analysis shows that the altcoin season needs to meet three conditions: capital outflow (stablecoin inflow exceeds BTC outflow), mainstream asset capital inflow (BTC, ETH, and stablecoins grow simultaneously), and short-term momentum of altcoins' market capitalization surpassing the long-term average. Currently, only condition 2 is met, with liquidity still concentrated in Bitcoin, but the negative outflow is narrowing, releasing positive signals. Macroeconomically, Bitcoin's dominance has reached 60%, and institutional funds and the halving effect are suppressing altcoin performance. If BTC enters a consolidation period and liquidity improves, altcoins may welcome localized opportunities, but a full-blown altcoin season may be delayed.