Currently, this wave of $BTC five-minute K-line is repeatedly oscillating above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands at 103500. The price has failed to break through the upper track at 103880 on three attempts, resulting in a daily close with a 0.09% increase in a low-volume false bullish candle. The market appears to be under the control of bulls, but the MA30 average volume line compared to the current trading volume of 102 million shows a divergence between volume and price. This 'low-volume top formation' structure is particularly dangerous at the weekly level.
On the news front, Grayscale's single-day outflow of 9,200 BTC has raised market awareness, and on-chain monitoring shows that the exchange's BTC balance has dropped to 2.37 million, a three-year low, indicating that the main players are slowly distributing their chips through the spot market. Despite the early session seeing a net inflow of $124 million into the BlackRock ETF supporting the facade, the CME Bitcoin futures open interest has surged to $11.2 billion, with short rates remaining in negative territory, indicating a clear intention for hedging by large funds.
Technically, a typical 'three crows' formation is emerging: the MACD is in a bullish arrangement, but the red momentum bars have been shrinking for six consecutive hours. The daily RSI has quickly dropped from 71 to 65, and the 4-hour EMA7 has crossed below the EMA30, forming a death cross. The key resistance level at 103880 is not only the upper track of the weekly Bollinger Bands but also the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level and the composite resistance zone of the historical high in 2024. This position has accumulated an open interest of $3.8 billion in options, and three peaks followed by a pullback have formed a market consensus of 'three peaks must fall.'
Key support should focus on the 102600-102800 range, which is not only the dynamic defense line of the daily EMA30 but also the cost zone for institutional accumulation in April. On-chain data shows that there are buy orders worth $1.57 billion in this area. If it effectively breaks below 102500, it will trigger forced liquidations of bullish contracts worth $930 million, creating a 'downward - liquidation - further downward' death spiral.
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