Based on the current market dynamics and the logic of the game between retail investors and market makers, my personal analysis is as follows.
Retail investor psychology analysis:
Run once breaking even type: Those who were trapped before finally endure until they break even, thinking of selling quickly, fearing a drop back down. For example, when Ethereum rises back to the break-even price, this type of person immediately sells, resulting in selling pressure in the market.
Take profit type: Those who made money in this wave of increases see the sideways movement and think, "It has risen enough, a correction is due," and immediately sell their coins, even reversing to short, thinking they can make another profit from the decline.
Stubbornly holding short positions type: Shorts who are trapped still refuse to accept it, believing "it has risen so much, it can't keep rising," constantly adding margin to hold on, which in turn becomes "fuel" for market makers' subsequent price rises.
Counter-revenge type: Those who previously cut losses at low levels see the price of the coin surge and feel they have missed out, leading to a breakdown in mentality. They simply reverse their operations: "If I short now, I must make some profit!" In fact, they are being led by their emotions.
Market maker strategy analysis:
Market makers had previously smashed the market for half a year, cutting retail investors down to size, accumulating enough chips at low prices. Now, when they pump the market, it must be fast and fierce:
• Lightning war pump: Taking advantage of retail investors still not reacting, they directly and violently push up, making those who missed out afraid to chase high.
• Sideways to cultivate retail investors: After pulling to a key level, a slight sideways movement or small drop occurs. At this moment, retail investors start to act out — those who break even flee, those who make profit take their profits, and those who missed out short the market. Market makers just happen to use these sell orders and short positions as "fuel" to stockpile.
• Secondary explosive increase: Once short sellers have added enough positions, market makers suddenly pull up again, cleanly blowing up the shorts. At this time, retail investors feel "if I don't buy now, it will be too late," and start to chase the rise, but as soon as they enter, market makers go sideways again, repeatedly harvesting profits.
Subsequent trend forecast:
Major correction? Don’t even think about it! Market makers spend real money to pump the market; how could they let retail investors buy at a low? The high probability is:
Sideways for a few days, making short sellers feel "the opportunity is here" and continue to add positions;
Suddenly a big bullish candlestick violently pushes up, blowing up the shorts;
When retail investors finally can't help but chase the rise, market makers start to gradually unload their holdings.
When even the most timid retail investors start shouting "The bull market is here!", that is the real danger signal — market makers have long been counting their money at the peak.
Daiyu's true words: In the cryptocurrency circle, only a minority make money because most people are making decisions based on emotions.
The core strategy of market makers can be summed up in one sentence: "What you want, I will not give; what you fear, I will give you plenty of."
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