US stocks and Bitcoin are experiencing high-level fluctuations; will the next movement be up or down?
Today, US stocks and Bitcoin are both fluctuating at high levels, and Bitcoin has not continued yesterday's crazy upward momentum, currently oscillating around $103,000.
Although the S&P 500 index has surged strongly in recent days, trading volume has clearly declined.
This indicates that investors in the US stock market are not as FOMO-driven as those in the crypto space; the enthusiasm for chasing price increases is not as high.
The US stock market may be showing signs of insufficient upward momentum, but it’s still too early to draw conclusions; we need to see how it performs after Monday's opening.
The US stock market is closed over the weekend, which will weaken market liquidity, and sentiment will dominate market trends.
If the market's FOMO sentiment can continue to ferment, Bitcoin and Ethereum may still have opportunities for short-term surges.
From a macro perspective, there are no significant bearish factors in the short term, and some favorable news is fermenting.
For example, the US and Europe are discussing a 30-day ceasefire agreement with Russia and Ukraine, while also threatening to increase sanctions if Russia does not comply.
Previously, the US and Ukraine had just signed a rare earth minerals agreement, and the signals for the end of the Russia-Ukraine war are becoming increasingly clear.
This will ease inflationary pressures in the US, causing market risk appetite to warm up.
There’s also the issue of US-China tariffs; although Trump is still tough verbally, communication with other countries has been quite smooth in the past week, with no progress regarding China.
However, the expectations of eased tariffs have injected some confidence into the market.
Bitcoin's turnover rate has skyrocketed? Is someone selling?
Yesterday, Bitcoin's turnover rate soared, setting a record high since 2025.
Especially for short-term players who bought at below $100,000, many left the market yesterday, making a quick profit.
However, from the exchange's inventory data, although Bitcoin's turnover rate is high, the Bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges is also increasing, showing no signs of accumulation.
This indicates that many people still have a positive outlook for the future, and despite the current price being not low, they are still actively buying.
From the chip distribution perspective, capital has indeed started accumulating around the $100,000 mark, but the volume is still insufficient to be considered a true bottom.
However, the support range between $93,000 and $98,000 is quite solid, with little chance of a short-term breakthrough.
The market is not short of money, but why isn't it rising?
Market fluctuations are not determined by liquidity; confidence and sentiment are the driving forces. The more people miss out, the more aggressively the market rises!
Currently, the market is not short of money; even Buffett's cash holdings have hit an all-time high, but why hasn’t he poured all of it into the market?
Just because there is a lot of money doesn’t mean liquidity is strong. If funds are stagnant and not moving, it’s like a still pond and cannot push prices.
Confidence is the engine of liquidity. Only when everyone feels the opportunity has arrived will they dare to invest in US stocks and crypto assets, and the market will come alive.
Whether it’s the Federal Reserve easing or monetary easing, the core is to instill confidence in the market.
This surge in Bitcoin to $100,000 is driven by favorable factors such as the easing of tariffs by Trump, stable US GDP, and the passage of Bitcoin strategic reserves in two states, igniting market FOMO sentiment.
So the current market is like a car; funds are the fuel and confidence is the engine. No matter how much fuel there is, without an engine, the car won’t move.
After a rapid increase, will there be a period of stagnation?
Every time Bitcoin surges rapidly, market sentiment easily experiences FOMO, and many people impulsively chase the highs due to greed, resulting in them catching the top.
Since Wall Street funds entered the market, Bitcoin tends to consolidate or stagnate after a rapid surge.
Therefore, regardless of whether you are bullish or bearish, it's best to observe for a few days at this position to see how significant the selling pressure is and how strong the buying support is.
From the weekly perspective, this wave looks more like a rebound from an oversold condition. It's more suitable for short-term trading now, so don't rush to go all in.
This weekend, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate at high levels, while Ethereum could have an independent market trend.
If Ethereum continues to surge, altcoins will likely rise alongside it.
However, the rebound of altcoins is impulsive and purely driven by sentiment. Everyone knows that altcoins have little value; once the sentiment recedes, they will return where they came from.
When market sentiment collectively experiences FOMO and everyone is optimistic, it’s a good opportunity to sell in batches and secure profits.
