The US April non-farm data has been released; is it good or bad?
Yesterday, the US released the April non-farm employment data, and the overall data was quite good, which is a slight positive.
In April, the US added 177,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, showing no signs of deterioration.
Considering the GDP data released in the past two days, the US economy has not fallen into a substantive recession.
This has warmed the market's confidence in the US economy; the previous concerns about recession can be put on hold for now.
As soon as this data was released, the market immediately reacted.
Yesterday, the three major US stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 index up 1.5%, the Nasdaq index up 1.6%, and Bitcoin also followed the rise of US stocks, peaking at $97,895.
This indicates that investors' confidence in the economic outlook has been ignited, and buying enthusiasm is high.
How will Bitcoin move next?
On-chain data shows that after Bitcoin broke through $97,000, market sentiment has subtly changed.
Some short-term investors see Bitcoin prices at a high level and can't help but want to take profits, leading to a slight increase in turnover.
Currently, the key position is between $93,000 and $98,000, where over 2.63 million Bitcoins are concentrated, almost the entire liquidity of the short-term market.
This range is both a solid bottom support (it won't drop further) and the current resistance level (it's a bit difficult to rise).
The market is still event-driven; any positive or negative data will directly affect the movements of Bitcoin and US stocks.
So is it a rebound or a reversal now?
I think it feels more like a rebound now, not a reversal.
Bitcoin rose from $73,000 to $97,000, but did not break the previous high of $109,000, so it cannot be considered a reversal.
Reversal needs a story and real money backing.
Without sufficient liquidity, forget about altcoins; even small-cap US stocks must oscillate at the bottom.
Currently, funds are all concentrated in Bitcoin and leading tech stocks, while other sectors are relatively quiet.
Without sector rotation, it is difficult for the market to welcome a comprehensive reversal.
Previously, Bitcoin rose from $10,000 to $30,000, $70,000, and $100,000, each time backed by a clear logic, such as ETF approvals and policy expectations brought by Trump 2.0.
But since Trump took office on January 20 of this year, there has been no new story for Bitcoin, and the market can only oscillate at high levels.
A true reversal will have to wait for a new story to emerge, such as new favorable policies or market hotspots, then funds will follow, and the price will break through new highs, which can confirm the reversal.
But in the long term, I have a lot of confidence in Bitcoin; the trend is very strong.
In the short term, we need to look at macro and political games: will the economy go into recession? Will the Fed make concessions on interest rates? Will Trump's tariff policy create new troubles? Will geopolitical conflicts escalate? All these will affect market sentiment.
So, let's first see if Bitcoin can return to the $100,000 high point before last year's unfavorable tariff policy.
If it can, it indicates that funds and confidence are still decent, and the outlook can be slightly optimistic. If even this is difficult, it shows that confidence is lacking, and Bitcoin is unlikely to have an independent market in the short term.
Will the Federal Reserve meeting next week disrupt the market?
Next, the market's focus will turn to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next Thursday.
The market generally expects that there will be no rate cuts in June; the key is how Fed Chairman Powell will respond.
Every word he says, even the tone changes, can be magnified and interpreted by the market.
If Powell takes a tough stance and continues to send hawkish signals about maintaining high interest rates, it may dampen the market.
But if he softens his tone and hints at the possibility of rate cuts in the future, US stocks and Bitcoin may continue to rebound.