Ethereum is indeed the one that can stir market sentiment; Bitcoin and others are not effective anymore. Whether at 1500 points or 1800 points, the two positions' cyclical double-bottom strategy has not incurred losses as of now. The next step is to decide whether to continue holding strategically or to defend and take profits. Once the market unfolds, we will respond accordingly!
In terms of the overarching trend, I firmly believe the bull market is not over, but we are halfway through the process. This viewpoint was emphasized during the previous market crash, and I have been providing support during the most extreme circumstances. Since the violent surge that started yesterday, Ethereum is likely to take over Bitcoin and replicate the previous bull market's momentum. While Bitcoin is at a high of $100,000, Ethereum is indeed quite far behind, which is one of the fundamental reasons it can provide future localized altcoin effects.
Even so, I still hold a conservative view on whether the big market will arrive prematurely. Firstly, I don't believe Bitcoin can reach the widely circulated intraday high of over $200,000 within the year. Secondly, regarding the potential for a full altcoin season to ignite with Ethereum's surge, I currently see no hope. Based on this, aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum, I personally believe there is no clear peak within the cycle, and there will definitely be significant opportunities in the future. If we have altcoins that spike dramatically in the short term, we should promptly take our capital back.
On the macro data front, Bitcoin's spot ETF saw a net inflow of $117 million yesterday, while Ethereum's spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $16.11 million. From a data perspective, there is no significant change in the external funding logic for Ethereum. In the summary of the intraday cyclical trends, my definition of Ethereum's recent surge is: a short-term bull rush concentrated after the critical value of bubble consumption, with sustainability still uncertain!
Additionally, we need to have certain psychological expectations. With Bitcoin just a step away from reaching a new high, it is quite normal for it to approach previous high points in the short term. However, for Bitcoin to maintain its strength, the cryptocurrency market needs to show collective strength, which currently lacks support in terms of trading volume. It is essential to have a clear monetary easing policy in place before extending the timeframe, as the market will ultimately provide us with some opportunities before the final peak.
In summary, it's time to get nervous. The volatility in the market before and after the window period will be significant, but the returns in the market after the window period will also be quite considerable. Throughout this cycle, I have notably reduced unnecessary altcoin judgments during the market's 'garbage time', but I have generally remained ahead of the main directional trends of the cycle.
When we all come to understand the bull market clearly, that will be the time for us to sell and exit.
BTC: Bitcoin is nearing the critical threshold of $100,000, with a slight decrease in trading volume compared to yesterday. This indicates that there is still significant uncertainty regarding short-term reversals in the medium to long-term trend. Currently, Bitcoin does not exhibit a strong willingness or demand for a price increase, especially if the capital is lacking. At this position, it is advisable to conservatively take some profits. On the technical side, the support level is at 101,000 points, and the resistance level is the previous high.
ETH: Ethereum is closely linked to Bitcoin, having risen from 1500 points to 1800 points and now showing approximately a 50% increase from the lows and at least a 20% increase from the highs. The daily trend remains strong. For those with a large position, it may be wise to take some profits. If Ethereum continues to be strong, the related L2 series will likely catch up, necessitating a shift in holdings. If there is a pullback, having liquid assets will allow for the next strategic move, responding based on the situation.
Altcoin section: SOL reached an intraday high of 175 points, close to the previously forecasted mid-term high of 180 points. If holding below 100 points, consider reducing your position by one-third. SUI has increased nearly 90% since the buy signal, take profits on a double, and HYPE has accumulated a 65% increase. In the daily pressure zone, it's wise to take some profits. There are also nearly ten altcoins that have risen by about 50% so far, waiting for a right-side breakout. This time, altcoins should better grasp the rhythm of operations, always prioritizing the safety of principal. Other discussions can be exchanged in the comments section.
The fear and greed index is at 70 today.
Lastly, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!
