This morning at two o'clock, unsurprisingly, the Federal Reserve once again kept interest rates unchanged. Powell, in his subsequent speech, once again pointed the finger at Trump, blaming his tariff policy for the inflation rebound risk, and the market simultaneously dipped. During the same period, Trump announced that he would negotiate with the East University on tariff issues and released positive signals. Bitcoin's price fell first and then rose, making a direct run towards the 100,000 mark within the day.
Traders maintain their predictions of a new round of interest rate cuts starting in June, with three cuts expected this year. Uncle San believes that macro-wise, the economic data from the U.S. is indeed strong. Under this premise, if in the short term, China and the U.S. can make appropriate concessions on some tariff data that exceed expectations, even if a consensus on core issues is not reached, it still represents a significant benefit for the global economy. Based on this, it will increase the stable recovery of risk capital. The bulls in the crypto market made a strong rebound during the day, and the recent replenishment of chips by ETF institutions that sheltered in April is also based on this.
Yua Miya's coin has launched, and this trend is really very Chinese. On the first day of going live, they directly controlled the speed of airdrop distribution; only after the project side basically sold out did those participating in the IDO start to enter the market. Currently, the drop exceeds 80%, and looking at this trend, it seems incredibly bottomless, harvesting without any bottom line in the dead of night. At the beginning of the project, Uncle San mentioned that if you really like Yua Miya, it was rumored that one million yen could allow you to experience it, which is really not worth it to give away for free. Look, a few photos, and they landed successfully.
In terms of data, Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 142 million USD yesterday, while Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of 21.8 million USD. The inflow of Bitcoin generally aligns with the current strategic positioning of institutions, but the situation with Ethereum is still concerning. Since the upgrade yesterday, apart from some appropriate rebound, there hasn't been any outstanding performance on-chain, and this needs continued observation.
On the day's increase ranking, the better altcoins honestly don't feel much different. In the afternoon, when discussing the market with several big shots in the circle, this point was also mentioned. The consensus among everyone is that there are too many coins issued, leading to visual fatigue from low-threshold altcoins. It's estimated that in the future, the altcoins that follow a single-model approach will show exponential growth, especially since even CZ said on social media that over 99% of memes have no future. Uncle San honestly believes that with the current speed of coin issuance, 99.99% going to zero is more accurate.
Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about RWA. Uncle San emphasized a piece of data during the official live broadcast at Binance Square the day before yesterday: currently, the funds allocated by major Wall Street institutions for RWA are occupying 90% of the entire RWA sector on Ethereum. There are two core points of concern here: first, the big shots on Wall Street are indeed allocating RWA; second, their allocated funds in this sector are placed on Ethereum.
But what Uncle San wants to say is that even if the trend of asset on-chain eventually materializes, it doesn't have much to do with us market traders. Regardless of which external application goes on-chain, as long as the tokens are listed, it is a game between retail investors and the whales, without exception. No matter how good the concept is or how many people hype and promote it, we must first demystify it. Capital always serves a few people.
The last train of the market is about to start, the roar of the engine has just begun to spread. After a brief bump, the new journey will definitely have a stronger acceleration, so everyone should sit tight and hold on.
BTC: Bitcoin is approaching the 100,000 USD mark. After a four-hour divergence, the market is gradually showing a six-hour divergence trend. The high point nearby remains high, and there is a clear tendency for a short squeeze. Overall, this wave of rebound has basically completed the entire expectation. Whether Bitcoin can continue to reach new highs remains to be observed for further volume conditions. Uncle San still leans towards the view that after a short-term top adjustment, it will need to return to the ground to fill the previous gaps, meaning that the short-term wave market is nearing high points. However, regarding the cyclical market, Uncle San's judgment remains consistent with before; the most extreme bearish signals have already passed, and the market reversal is just missing a confirmed signal. In the short-term daily line, the high point is around 101,000 points, with support at 96,000 points.
ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin, and after yesterday's upgrade, the daily line has begun a secondary rebound. The first phase upward from 1800 points to 2000 points is also the limit touch. What is quite heartbreaking is that this position is once again the lowest point for Ethereum after Bitcoin approaches 100,000, with each previous instance being lower than the last. In the short-term trend, the technical adjustment is relatively sufficient; if it can stabilize at the 2000-point level, there is an opportunity to continue rising after a brief adjustment.
Altcoin part: (200,000 USD plan) The current yield is 16.5%, finally lagging behind Bitcoin's 17% rise during the same period. EOS announced a name change yesterday, and there were no changes in token economics or ecology. As expected, after changing the whale, actions are about to begin, with EOS having a short-term positive surge. The old mainstream coins LTC and BCH are also linked again today. In my personal view, the older altcoins are relatively safer compared to a bunch of new altcoins, after all, the cost of issuing coins back then and the early consensus from the market surely bring long-term market value.
The fear and greed index is at 65 for the day.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot!
