The air force is accumulating fuel. Today, during the day, the long-short ratio is still 51.5 to 48.5. After several hours of sideways movement, the long-short ratio has almost become one to one. One can only say that the air force still has money.
Let's analyze the psychology of retail investors:
1. Those who are breaking even: They will think that after holding for so long, they finally broke even and quickly close their positions. The result: selling Ethereum.
2. Those who made money in this wave: Having made so much, they think they should sell quickly after the sideways movement. It has risen so much in one day, it must pull back, so they short. The result: selling Ethereum and going short.
3. Those holding short positions: They will think, having risen so much, how much higher can it go? I’ll add some margin and continue to hold.
4. Those who cut losses at the previous low: Wow, Ethereum has risen so much, and I cut losses before and didn’t benefit at all. I’m not satisfied, I must short it. Now going long would make it look like I was foolish to cut losses at the low point. The result: going short.
Now let's analyze the mindset of the market makers:
In the past six months, they have basically eliminated retail investors by crashing prices, and they have collected low-priced chips. The rise must be quick and not allow retail investors to react. Once it reaches a key point, the air force’s fuel is almost depleted, and with selling pressure increasing, the cost-effectiveness of the rise is not high. At this point, they will consolidate or slightly pull back, allowing retail investors to ferment the above thoughts for a while, accumulating shorting fuel. After the selling pressure is mostly done, they will then make a strong upward move. A major pullback is impossible. Now retail investors are thinking: Oh, it has risen so high, and I didn’t get in at all. When it pulls back, I will definitely enter. If most think this way, the market makers will not do it. Why should I spend my hard-earned money to push the price up only to pull back and let you in!
So, based on the above thoughts of retail investors and market makers, the future development is highly likely to be: sideways or a slight pullback, then continue to surge rapidly. It must be a quick rise, and when retail investors want to enter, they will immediately begin to consolidate. At this point, most retail investors will hesitate or short again, thus repeating until most retail investors realize and start going long, then it will basically be at the top for $ETH.