The crypto market is officially in a Bitcoin season. In April 2025, less than 30% of the top altcoins outperformed BTC over the last 90 days — one of the key criteria of the Altcoin Season Index.
At the same time, Bitcoin broke the $100,000 barrier, driven by institutional flows and a global environment marked by economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, overall sentiment improves after the recent correction, with the Fear & Greed index hovering around 50 points.
For those closely following the market, the big question is:
Are we close to a new alt-season or is a significant capital rotation still far off?
BTC dominance as a compass for cycles
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has historically been one of the best indicators for anticipating the transition between the so-called Bitcoin seasons and altcoin seasons. Today, BTC dominance surpassed 64%, its highest level since mid-2020, indicating a strong concentration of capital in BTC compared to alternative assets.
This behavior often anticipates two possible scenarios:
That BTC's bullish cycle continues strongly, keeping altcoins in a consolidation phase.
That BTC is reaching a dominance ceiling, which historically has led to a rotation towards altcoins — as happened in the cycles of 2017 and 2021.
However, current technical indicators do not yet point to an immediate reversal, suggesting that institutional investors continue to prioritize safety amid a fragile macroeconomic context.
Altcoin Season Index: the thermometer of capital rotation
Another relevant data point comes from the Altcoin Season Index, currently at 30 points — one of the lowest levels since its inception. The index defines an alt-season as a period in which at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform BTC over 90 days. Clearly, we are far from that threshold today.
However, there is a recent precedent: in August 2024, the index hit similar levels and was then followed by a significant rise in infrastructure tokens, projects linked to artificial intelligence, and tokenized real-world assets.
Therefore, the current moment can be interpreted in two ways: on one hand, there is a strong aversion to risk; on the other, this same setup has preceded bullish cycles of altcoins in the past.
Macro and regulatory winds: the main obstacle
The global macroeconomic environment today represents one of the biggest brakes on a widespread alt-season. Restrictive monetary policies — particularly from the Federal Reserve — are draining liquidity from the markets, which directly affects more volatile and smaller-cap assets.
This is compounded by recent regulatory restructurings in the United States, such as the closure of the crypto unit of the Department of Justice or changes in the leadership of the SEC. All this generates uncertainty, especially for projects associated with DeFi, DAOs, or tokenized governance models.
The outcome: a less attractive scenario for investors who, in times of instability, prefer to hold BTC and ETH rather than take on additional risks.
Resilient narratives: where there is still momentum
Although the main focus is on Bitcoin, there are sectors that continue to show good relative performance.
AI Tokens: projects linked to generative models, autonomous agents, and contextual oracles continue to grow, with adoption in multiple industries.
Real World Assets (RWAs): the tokenization of assets such as government bonds, real estate, and commodities is progressing in countries with stable regulatory frameworks — especially in jurisdictions like Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, and parts of Central America.
Modular infrastructure: L2 and L3 solutions based on Ethereum, such as Arbitrum, Starknet, or Linea, continue to attract developers and capital, thanks to reduced costs and improved scalability.
These tokens tend to stand out when they combine solid fundamentals, controlled issuance, sustainable staking models, and active participation from their technical communities.
Advanced strategies: what to observe now
For technical investors, some key indicators deserve attention:
A reversal in BTC dominance, especially if it falls below 60%, along with an increase in altcoin volume.
Lateral consolidation of BTC for weeks, which in previous cycles allowed flows into higher-risk assets.
Growth in TVL (Total Value Locked) in multichain DeFi protocols, accompanied by better funding rate and open interest metrics, especially if there are signs of spot accumulation and controlled leverage.
It is also worth monitoring institutional capital flows into Ethereum and its second-layer solutions, as they often precede bullish movements in tokens of the ecosystem.
Conclusion: it is not alt-season yet — but it could be near
Everything indicates that we are in the midst of a Bitcoin season, reinforced by a tense macroeconomic context and uncertain regulations. There are no technical or sentiment signals confirming an immediate alt-season.
However, the history of the crypto market shows that capital always rotates. And when it does, it favors projects with fundamentals, community, solid governance, and clear proposals.
The upcoming alt-season is likely to be more selective. It will not reward empty promises, but rather tokens with real deliverables, viable economies, and concrete adoption.
Those who understand this dynamic will be better positioned when the market turns. Because in crypto, informed anticipation is as valuable as timing.
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