$BTC Short-term Trading Analysis

Yesterday, after breaking through 100k, we advised against shorting lightly. Overnight, 200k people were liquidated, and shorts faced the largest washout of the year. All mid-to-long-term shorts were wiped out, and the market is being reshuffled.

In the short term, after breaking 100k, there has been no pullback, and it surged 4000 points. Currently, it is consolidating at a high level. From the market's perspective, very few people are bearish on the market. From a trend-following perspective, this is reasonable, but any trend has a degree of perfection, and after a trend comes consolidation. This is not a good entry point; structurally, it does not support this. A high-volume rise usually indicates the end of a trend, leading to divergence, while the main force is unloading.

From a macro perspective, the timing of interest rate cuts is still uncertain, likely in July. Currently, the conditions for a full bull market are not in place. It is not wise to think that if it rises, it will reach 200k, and if it falls, it will go to zero. Combined with last night’s spike and drop in the U.S. market, as well as the relatively low trading volume during this round, I subjectively believe it is not advisable to chase highs.

In terms of operational thinking,

Short-term high short strategy: if shorting, stops must be set at new highs, which is a counter-trend trade with high risk.

Mid-term bullish strategy: wait for a pullback near 100k. If it stabilizes and stops falling, and then breaks through, it can be entered in line with the trend, with 100k as risk control, and the risk-reward ratio is relatively good.