Market Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) has broken the $100,000 mark, with strong short-term bullish momentum.
As of May 9, 2025, the price of Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000, with a daily increase of over 5%, reaching a high of $104,139, a new high since February 2025. Technically, BTC formed a 'V-shaped reversal' pattern after breaking through the $100,000 mark, showing strong short-term bullish momentum. The daily MACD histogram continues to expand, and the RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone (above 85), but no significant divergence signal has appeared, indicating that the current upward trend has not ended.
On the fundamental side, global cryptocurrency ETF inflows continue, with a cumulative net inflow of over $5 billion in May, and institutional holdings have risen to 19.2%. Additionally, expectations for a Fed rate cut in June are warming (CME interest rate futures show a 78% probability of a rate cut), providing liquidity support for risk assets. However, it is important to be cautious as the SEC's compliance review of exchanges is tightening, which may trigger short-term sentiment fluctuations.
Ethereum (ETH) has caught up, breaking through $2,200, with weekly pressure evident.
The price of Ethereum broke the $2,000 mark on May 9, reaching a high of $2,244, with a 24-hour increase of 20.26%, significantly outperforming BTC. Technically, ETH formed a 'bullish engulfing' pattern after breaking through the resistance zone of $1,830-$1,845, indicating a clear short-term bullish trend. However, on the weekly level, it still faces resistance in the $2,250-$2,300 range (Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level + EMA220 moving average resonance resistance). If it fails to break through effectively, it may enter a high-level consolidation.
The driving factors include: Ethereum staking rate breaking 19.2% (approximately 33 million ETH), LSD track TVL reaching $85 billion; Layer 2 scaling solutions seeing a surge in transaction volume, exceeding 1.8 million transactions in a single day, with increased ecosystem activity. Moreover, the probability of Ethereum spot ETF approval has risen to 70% (Bloomberg ETF analyst prediction), which could trigger a capital siphoning effect if approved.
Key Driving Factors
Macroeconomic Liquidity
The Fed's expectations for a rate cut in June, combined with a global central bank gold buying spree (Q1 2025 global central bank gold purchases up 35% year-on-year), are driving demand for safe-haven asset allocation, with Bitcoin's narrative as 'digital gold' continuing to strengthen.
Technical Upgrades
After the Ethereum Dencun upgrade, gas fees decreased by 62%, aiding the recovery of DeFi and NFT ecosystems, with TVL surpassing $130 billion (DeFiLlama data).
Regulatory Dynamics
The EU's MiCA regulations will come into full effect in June 2025, potentially increasing the market share of compliant exchanges to 40%, which is a long-term positive for institutional entry.
On-chain Data
The number of Bitcoin non-zero balance addresses has reached 48.5 million (a historical high), with long-term holders (HODLers) accounting for 69.1%, indicating limited selling pressure.
Operational Strategy
Trend Traders
BTC
If the daily closing price stabilizes above $100,000, consider a light long position with a target of $104,000-$108,000, and set a stop loss at $99,000 (1% below the previous low).
ETH
Add positions after breaking through $2,200, target $2,250-$2,300, stop loss if it falls below $2,150.
Risk warning: Short-term vigilance is needed for the U.S. April CPI data (to be released on May 15) exceeding expectations, which could heighten tightening expectations. If BTC falls below the strong support level of $95,000, it may trigger a liquidation wave for leveraged longs, with a potential drop of 20%-25%. The delay in Ethereum spot ETF approval (30% probability) may lead to short-term corrections, but the medium to long-term logic remains unchanged.
The current market is in the mid-acceleration phase of a bull market, with strong fundamental support for BTC and ETH, but short-term volatility should be monitored. It is recommended for trend traders to mainly follow breakthroughs, while swing traders should seize range opportunities, and long-term investors should maintain dollar-cost averaging and utilize staking to enhance returns.
