Morning Thoughts on May 9

After a long two months of dormancy, Ethereum has finally ushered in a strong breakout, with a single-day price increase of over 400 points. This long-awaited upward trend not only brings hope to spot traders but also provides temporary relief for those who have been stuck at high levels. From a technical perspective, the daily candlestick pattern is quite impressive, having broken through key moving averages such as EMA30, EMA60, and EMA80. Currently, it has briefly paused above EMA120 before experiencing a slight pullback, confirming the previous prediction about a corrective rally. It is advised that traders exercise caution when shorting. In the short term, today’s focus should be on two key support levels: first is the 2100 level, which, as the March high, is expected to transition from a resistance level to a support level; second is the EMA80 moving average position. However, the specific entry timing should be flexibly assessed based on the intraday pullback speed. If the market's pullback strength is weak, it may struggle to reach the aforementioned levels. The upper resistance range is concentrated around the EMA120 moving average and the 2250 price level. Once this level is effectively broken, the price may further rise to challenge the new resistance band formed by MA120 and EMA180 moving averages.

From a weekly perspective, Ethereum still faces multiple pressure tests. The current candlestick has not successfully stood above the upper Bollinger band and EMA220 moving average, and the crossover of MA180 and EMA180, along with the resonance range of EMA120 and EMA60, constitutes strong resistance. At the same time, the MACD indicator's fast and slow lines have not yet completed a golden cross pattern, indicating that the market is still in a consolidation phase. Against this backdrop, it is recommended to continue monitoring the correlation between Ethereum and Bitcoin, and to make arrangements only after the upward momentum is further confirmed for greater safety.

Bitcoin: 101500-102500 Long Target 103300-104300

Ethereum: 2100-2150 Long Target 2250-2300

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