Don't be fooled by this explosive rally. Yesterday BTC surged to recent highs, seeming powerful, but actually hiding dangers. I'm about to say something very heavy:
This could be the 'end signal of a bull market' or even the prelude to a 'super crash.'
Why do I see extreme bears here?
The global capital market is entering a precursor to systemic risk.
The U.S. has announced new tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating the trade war and tightening the global supply chain. This is not 2008, but it feels a lot like 2007 — systemic risk is fermenting.
The fantasy of interest rate cuts has shattered, and the Fed's stance has turned hawkish.
The market originally expected interest rate cuts to begin in June, but Powell directly contradicted this: 'We are not at the point of cutting rates yet.' This means that the cost of capital remains high, which is even more unfavorable for risk assets.
On-chain data: whale selling is underway.
In the past 48 hours, over 20,000 BTC have flowed from cold wallets to exchanges. Movements of this scale are never for 'long-term holding,' but rather preparing for a dump to cash out.
The technical indicators are severely diverging, extremely overbought, and a reversal could happen at any time.
The RSI on the daily chart is as high as 92, which is almost a historical extreme level, and the candlesticks and moving averages are severely decoupled, making it fundamentally unstable. Once it pulls back, it could be a ten thousand dollar deep pit.
U.S. debt pressure is approaching the warning line.
Congress is once again discussing raising the debt ceiling, the bond market is experiencing severe fluctuations, and safe-haven funds are flooding into the dollar and gold, no longer favoring risk assets. BTC seems to resist inflation, but in the face of high interest rates and a strong dollar, it cannot stand firm.
This surge may be the last breath of oxygen for this bull market. This wave is not a continuation of the bull market; it is the final trap for the greedy. If you don't leave now, the next time you wake up, it could be below 80,000, 70,000, or even 60,000. The cruelest part of the market is not the speed of the drop, but that you won't have time to react. After FOMO comes regret; after the feast comes the bloodbath. What you should do is not fantasize but remain calm!