BTC broke 100,000. My judgment was correct, but I wasn't on | 雪糕战神 on Binance Square

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BTC broke 100,000. My judgment was correct, but I wasn't on the bus.
In the previous article, I said:
The daily structure continues to look bullish, while the short-term 15-minute is slightly bearish, but I won't short, I'll wait for a pullback and stop loss before considering a long position.
Indeed, after short-term fluctuations, BTC chose to continue advancing and has just officially broken through 100,000 USD.
My directional judgment was correct.
But unfortunately, I opened a small long position too early, entering at a position that wasn't confirmed yet,
made a little profit and ran. I didn't dare to add, didn't dare to hold.
To put it simply, fearing loss and being wrong led to "even being right doesn't earn money."
But I am not discouraged.
Reflecting on the three issues from this operation:
The entry position wasn't confirmed; I wanted to "get on the bus early," resulting in entering at a position that wasn't confirmed enough, which got shaken out by a little fluctuation.
The split between judgment and action: I clearly judged the overall direction to be bullish, yet panicked myself due to the short-term fluctuations being too fast.
The biggest issue of lacking confidence is not daring to believe in the rhythm of my own analysis. The structure clearly strengthened, and the volume was also supportive, yet I was still "afraid it would reverse."
What I gained the most wasn't "being right in judgment," but rather:
This time I had records, plans, and rules,
I also realized which step I didn't do right and which part I didn't finish.
I didn't act randomly; I just didn't finish the tasks.
Let's improve together.

雪糕战神

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After experiencing the roller coaster market of altcoins, I realized:
No matter how small the opportunity, it cannot escape the direction of BTC;
And no matter how intense the short-term speculation, it essentially remains a process of finding water levels for funds under the overall trend.

So, back to the essence: BTC is the wind direction.

BTC Daily Chart: Structure is Bullish

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From a technical perspective, BTC is currently in a bullish trend:

Since the rebound from the low in April, the daily chart has consecutively closed with multiple solid bullish candles, showing a synchronized rise in overall highs and lows;

Yesterday, it attempted to break above 96,000 but faced resistance, yet still closed above the short-term moving average;

Volume has not shown significant divergence, and there are no signs of overall weakening.

The daily structure gives me the intuitive judgment that:

This round of increase is not over; it has merely entered a consolidation phase.

In other words, the daily trend is healthy, but it won’t continuously follow a steep trend line. Consolidation, pullbacks, and washouts are all necessary.

BTC 15-Minute Chart: Short-Term Rhythm is Bearish

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The problem lies in the short term.

From the 15-minute chart, the price has faced continuous resistance around 96,500 in the past two days, gradually forming a local descending channel:

Each rebound has not surpassed the previous highs;

Trading volume has clearly weakened, and most of the increase in volume occurred on bearish candles;

Late last night and today during the day, there have been consecutive high-level fluctuations and drops, and further declines cannot be ruled out.

Conclusion: Bullish on the daily chart, but there is still room for pullbacks in the short term.
My current operating thought process:
Do not chase highs. Although the daily chart is bullish, I do not want to buy myself into the top of a short-term pullback.

Wait for confirmation of pullback + stop-loss signals before considering going long, with strict stop-losses.

Do not short. The trend is upward, and the success rate of shorting is too low; time cannot be traded for space.

Trading short-term can easily fall into the "intraday trap",

So I now clarify a principle: the daily chart sets the direction, and the short term sets the rhythm.

Summary:

Wait for it to confirm a stop-loss in the 95,000~95,200 range (for example, a low point that does not break lower, followed by a significant rebound),

I will consider entering a long position, with the stop-loss set below the previous low.

In the future, I will persist in reviewing BTC from three dimensions: structure, rhythm, and trading plan, recording my growth.

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