After experiencing the roller coaster market of altcoins, I realized:

No matter how small the opportunity, it cannot escape the direction of BTC;

And no matter how intense the short-term speculation, it essentially remains a process of finding water levels for funds under the overall trend.

So, back to the essence: BTC is the wind direction.

BTC Daily Chart: Structure is Bullish

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From a technical perspective, BTC is currently in a bullish trend:

Since the rebound from the low in April, the daily chart has consecutively closed with multiple solid bullish candles, showing a synchronized rise in overall highs and lows;

Yesterday, it attempted to break above 96,000 but faced resistance, yet still closed above the short-term moving average;

Volume has not shown significant divergence, and there are no signs of overall weakening.

The daily structure gives me the intuitive judgment that:

This round of increase is not over; it has merely entered a consolidation phase.

In other words, the daily trend is healthy, but it won’t continuously follow a steep trend line. Consolidation, pullbacks, and washouts are all necessary.

BTC 15-Minute Chart: Short-Term Rhythm is Bearish

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The problem lies in the short term.

From the 15-minute chart, the price has faced continuous resistance around 96,500 in the past two days, gradually forming a local descending channel:

Each rebound has not surpassed the previous highs;

Trading volume has clearly weakened, and most of the increase in volume occurred on bearish candles;

Late last night and today during the day, there have been consecutive high-level fluctuations and drops, and further declines cannot be ruled out.

Conclusion: Bullish on the daily chart, but there is still room for pullbacks in the short term.

My current operating thought process:

Do not chase highs. Although the daily chart is bullish, I do not want to buy myself into the top of a short-term pullback.

Wait for confirmation of pullback + stop-loss signals before considering going long, with strict stop-losses.

Do not short. The trend is upward, and the success rate of shorting is too low; time cannot be traded for space.

Trading short-term can easily fall into the "intraday trap",

So I now clarify a principle: the daily chart sets the direction, and the short term sets the rhythm.

Summary:

Wait for it to confirm a stop-loss in the 95,000~95,200 range (for example, a low point that does not break lower, followed by a significant rebound),

I will consider entering a long position, with the stop-loss set below the previous low.

In the future, I will persist in reviewing BTC from three dimensions: structure, rhythm, and trading plan, recording my growth.