That night at the beginning of 2022 is still fresh in my memory.

The cold light of the computer screen reflected my furrowed brow as the ETH price fell from a high of $4,800 to $3,000. But strangely, I felt remarkably calm inside. "This is just a technical adjustment," I murmured to the air, "the PoS upgrade is coming, and EIP-1559 will make ETH a deflationary asset." At that time, like countless crypto believers, I firmly believed that HODL (holding long-term) was the only truth to wealth freedom.

Three years later, I finally awakened: in the 2025 crypto market, apart from BTC, no other coin is worth holding long-term. Join the top KOL chat room, click to enter the group and collect red envelopes

At that time, the crypto world was filled with idealism. We laughed at those "gamblers" who traded frequently on Twitter and shared various memes of "diamond hands" in Discord channels. ETH was not just an investment target for us, but a kind of faith. I remember at an offline gathering, when someone questioned ETH's value, I excitedly slammed the table and said, "You don't understand what true value storage is!"

However, fate always likes to play tricks. In 2022, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike came down mercilessly, the collapse of Three Arrows Capital triggered a domino effect, and the sudden downfall of FTX cast a shadow over the entire industry. My investment portfolio melted away like ice cream under the scorching sun, but what hurt me the most was not the decrease in digits, but the shaking of my faith.

I remember an industry conference at the beginning of 2023, where everyone in the room was discussing the upcoming "super cycle" of ETH. Some even calculated the exact timeline for the peak of the bull market. I looked around and suddenly realized a terrifying truth: we were all using past experiences to predict the future, yet no one was willing to admit that the market had fundamentally changed.

The turning point came in the spring of 2024. SOL unexpectedly rebounded strongly, while ETH was mired in various FUD. The "shitcoin" that we once mocked is now hitting everyone hard. Ironically, the much-anticipated re-staking narrative has turned to ashes due to Eigenlayer's token issuance failure. I began to seriously examine my investment logic, and upon doing so, cold sweat instantly soaked my back.

A friend who achieved financial freedom by trading meme coins told me his secret: "My average holding time is no more than 60 seconds." This sentence hit me like a heavy hammer. Looking through my trading records, I found that the vast majority of altcoins had already given back all the gains of this bull market. It turned out that the real secret to profit was not to "hold on" but to "sell in time."

However, the market is always full of surprises. Just when I was about to completely dismiss the HODL strategy, BTC's performance gave me new insights. MicroStrategy's continuous buying, BlackRock's research report, and the public endorsement by a Mexican tycoon are all telling a brand new story: BTC is transforming from a high-risk speculative asset into "digital gold." I suddenly realized that it wasn't the HODL strategy that was failing, but rather that assets suitable for this strategy are extremely rare.

After realizing this, I began to reassess the entire crypto ecosystem. The private equity market has fallen from idealism into a game of harvesting retail investors, with 80% of new tokens not surviving six months; the utopian dream of DeFi has been replaced by RWA and institutional stablecoins; the so-called decentralized DAOs are merely dictatorships dressed in the guise of democracy. The most ironic thing is that a16z, as the largest holder of Uniswap, shouts decentralization while firmly controlling the direction of the project's development.

Now, I have finally learned to view this market with a more realistic perspective. Every morning when I wake up, I no longer blindly check the ETH price, but first ask myself three questions: Where is the liquidity flowing today? What narratives are forming? When should I take profits? This shift has allowed me to preserve most of my gains during the recent market fluctuations.

Standing at the crossroads of 2025, I looked at the increasingly tightening regulatory policies of various governments, the impending ban on privacy coins in Europe, and the ambiguous attitude of the United States, and couldn't help but recall Vitalik's prophecy: "Cryptocurrency is still in the early stages of regulation formation." But the question is, in this era of de-globalization, do we really have enough time?

The current crypto world is like an ongoing battle royale game; the old rules are failing, and the new laws have yet to be established. The only certainty is that in this market, stubborn beliefs can kill you, and only by evolving can you survive. Looking back over the past three years, my greatest gain has not been the ups and downs of money, but learning to stay clear-headed amidst the frenzy and to look for opportunities in despair. Perhaps this is the most precious gift the crypto market gives us — it won't always reward the right people, but it will certainly punish those who refuse to change. Join the top KOL chat room, click to enter the group

@姜楠的笔记 Follow me, and I'll take you through cycles.