$BTC

🔥 【$BTC/USDT: Is Bitcoin's Spring Here Again? In-depth Interpretation of Key Signals】

Market Status:

- Price Breakthrough: $BTC is currently at $99,000, with a 12% increase over the past 7 days, having regained the 200-day moving average ($95,200), and the technical indicators show a 'cup and handle' breakout.

- Trading Volume Recovery: 24-hour trading volume exceeds $40 billion, a 35% increase compared to last month's average, indicating a noticeable revival in market activity.

Three Major Spring Signals 🌱

1️⃣ Institutional Funds Flowing Back:

- BlackRock's spot ETF (IBIT) has seen a net inflow for 18 consecutive days, accumulating an additional 52,000 BTC, with institutional holdings surpassing 3% of circulating supply.

- MicroStrategy has increased its holdings again, with an average cost of $94,800, currently showing a profit of over 15%, forming strong support.

2️⃣ Strong On-chain Data:

- Exchange balances have dropped to 2.25 million BTC (a 5-year low), with long-term holders (LTH) holding 78% of the supply, and selling pressure continuing to decrease.

- Miners' shutdown price has risen to $60,000, with stable hash rates post-halving, gradually revealing supply tightening effects.

3️⃣ Improved Macroeconomic Environment:

- Expectations for Fed interest rate cuts are rising, with CME interest rate futures showing a 65% chance of a rate cut in September, enhancing the preference for risk assets.

- US crypto regulation is easing, and favorable policies under Trump may further drive capital inflow.

Risks and Challenges ⚠️

- Short-term Volatility: RSI is approaching 70 (overbought zone), and if it cannot hold above the psychological level of $100,000, it may test the support at $93,000.

- Derivative Risks: The perpetual contract funding rate has risen to 0.02%, and highly leveraged long positions should be wary of potential liquidation due to corrections.

Operation Suggestions:

- Short-term: If it breaks through $100,000, target $105,000 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension).

- Long-term: Accumulate in the $90,000-$95,000 range, betting on post-halving cyclical trends.

Is this rise a 'continuation of the halving bull market' or the 'beginning of a new bubble'?

#BTCSpring #BitcoinBullMarket #CryptoMarketRecovery