#BTC突破99K

🔥 【#BTC突破99K Historical Moment: Is the Next Stop $100,000 or a Deep Correction?】

📊 Real-time Situation:

Bitcoin has strongly broken through $99,000 today, reaching a new high for 2025! The 24-hour trading volume surged to $45 billion, with a total liquidation amount exceeding $820 million (split evenly between longs and shorts). Technical indicators show that the 4-hour chart has formed an 'ascending expanding wedge', with the MACD golden cross confirmed, but the RSI has reached 78 (overbought area), indicating increased short-term volatility risk.

Three Focus Points in Long and Short Battles

1️⃣ Key Resistance Areas:

- Psychological Barrier: $100,000 is the dividing line for longs and shorts; breaking through it would target $105,000 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension level).

- On-chain Chip Distribution: Over $1.2 billion in options open contracts have accumulated in the $97,000-$99,000 range; if it stabilizes at $99K, it will trigger large-scale stop-losses from shorts.

2️⃣ Macro Catalysts:

- Federal Reserve Policy: Although the probability of a rate cut in 2025 has dropped to 30%, if tonight's FOMC meeting releases dovish signals, it could push BTC to challenge $102,000.

- Regulatory Changes: Countdown to SEC Chairman Gensler's resignation, Trump nominates crypto-friendly officials, which may accelerate institutional fund inflows.

3️⃣ On-chain Signal Divergence:

- Whale Movements: The top 10 addresses have increased their holdings by 18,000 BTC over the past three days, but exchange balances have slightly increased by 0.5%, suggesting some profit-taking.

- Miner Selling Pressure: After the halving, daily miner selling has dropped to 900 BTC (20% during peak periods), with $58,000 becoming the new shutdown price defense line.

Operational Strategy

✅ Bullish Scenario:

- Enter long after breaking $100,000, leverage ≤ 3x, target $105,000→$110,000 (VanEck's mid-term forecast).

- Set stop-loss at $96,500 (50-day moving average + wedge lower boundary resonance point).

⛔ Bearish Entry Point:

- If it breaks down below $95,000 after a false breakout, it may trigger $600 million in long liquidations, with a retest of $93,500 (annual opening price).

When the 'Halving Cycle Dividend' encounters 'Macro Liquidity Tightening', will $BTC continue the frenzied bull market or replay the 'High Peak Collapse' scenario of 2021?

#BTC Moon Landing Plan #Crypto Long and Short Showdown #Post-halving Era