Overnight this morning, after the Federal Reserve's hawkish statement at the May meeting, BTC rose continuously after testing the 95k support to 99k, approaching the 100,000 dollar threshold. This level is both a technical resistance and a psychological barrier. In yesterday's article ('Is Bitcoin 97,000 a trap? When will it hit 100,000? Alpha is set to rise 10 times! Elon Musk has also looked into IPs, Gorilla has surged over 300%, the next DOGE?'), I recommended going long around 95,700 dollars. It turned out to be a profitable day for those who followed along; congratulations to those who got on board!
The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance makes Bitcoin as steady as a mountain. Will it hit 100,000 tonight? Will Ethereum also break 2000? Is the bull returning? Is the altcoin season coming?
First, let's look at a set of data: On Hyperliquid, Bitcoin's long positions have floating profits of 32 million dollars, while short positions have floating losses of 31.5 million dollars;
Ethereum's long positions are floating profits of 9 million dollars, while short positions are floating profits of 18 million dollars;
From this, it can be concluded that Bitcoin players' overall positions are biased towards the medium to long term, with contracts reflecting a zero-sum game, where bulls and bears are opponents. Ethereum, however, has many short-term players, and short-term stop losses allow profits to accumulate for medium to long-term players, resulting in both sides floating profits.
Currently, the large positions of Bitcoin and Ethereum shorts have surrendered massively, coinciding with the entry of right-side long positions. At this point, any effort from the shorts will be meaningless. Based on historical data, the next move will either create a new trend or quickly fall back; it won’t linger for too long.
Bitcoin:
The daily level closed with a bullish doji yesterday, and today it has stabilized at yesterday's closing price, confirming a bullish signal! The 4-hour level shows that 95,700 dollars is a solid support, with very low probability of breaking down, and there are 2 strategies:
1. If a large bullish candle successfully breaks through 99,400 dollars, then 100,000 dollars is within reach. The best buying opportunity is to go long when the price pulls back to the 95,700-96,000 dollar range. Once it breaks through 99,400 dollars, additional positions can be added to aim for 100,000 dollars.
2. If 100,000 dollars faces resistance and falls back, it’s important to take profits in time. It is recommended to adopt a low-buy and high-sell strategy.
Ethereum:
Ethereum surged 5% in one day, currently priced at 1900. This morning, ETH briefly dropped to over 1700, which still meets expectations. However, aggressive short selling caused a situation where bad news was fully priced in, leading to a rally. I bought my ETH for around 1500 and sold at 1850; now it’s at 1890. I don't regret selling a bit less.
Currently, Ethereum has finished converging at the moving averages. Those who already hold long positions can adjust their stop losses and wait for a breakout, participating passively. Those without positions should not bet on the direction, but wait for an effective breakthrough before entering. Breakout strategies are difficult to execute, but from a 'rearview mirror' perspective, real major trends often begin with such breakouts.
Altcoins:
Today, some altcoins such as STX, YFI, TAO, and a few others have significantly rebounded. The bull market since the beginning of 2023 has been dominated by external forces, with overall performance being average; Bitcoin has risen alone while altcoins have performed flatly, and the altcoin season has yet to arrive. However, large funds in the crypto space are still exploring areas from DEFI, GAMEFI, to the metaverse and AI. The crypto world acts like a casino, where there are no shortages of people, money, or new investors eager to come in and strike gold, and there won't be in the future.
PEPE
I bought some relatively stable Pepe and Doge after seeing Bitcoin break through. I shared Pepe in the internal group; for this wave, I’m temporarily looking at 0.093 and 0.097. Currently, I’ve caught a rebound, which is pretty good.
Jager
At 6 PM this afternoon, the airdrop claim window will close, and the unclaimed 80% of the airdrop (accounting for 65% of the total chips) will be converted to LP rewards. Within 7 days, 20% of the chips will be mined out of the remaining 65%, indicating a huge dividend pool that will allow for recovery in 2-3 days.
Jager may start a positive flywheel: high APY attracts more LPs, driving buying pressure and price increases, subsequently enhancing intrinsic APY and creating a virtuous cycle. Jager has a valuation of 17 million, with an actual circulating supply of 6 million. Considering 1 million users claiming airdrops and nearly 200,000 holders, the future circulating supply may have room for growth. In the next 7 days, let’s wait and see.
gorilla
I already wrote about this in my article yesterday. After the gorilla goes on Alpha, what is the next expectation?
Mubarak has over 20 million dollars in market value on Binance spot, minus the value of a Binance shell, there isn’t much upward space for DONKEY GORILLA JAGER. At this time, Binance officially needs to take action; otherwise, it will be difficult later on. The current BSC ecology is like a raging fire about to ignite, just needing Binance to add a bit of fuel. As the saying goes, 'One surge leads to another, then it wanes, and finally it exhausts.'