Market sentiment rapidly reversed in just a few hours —
Expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, coupled with external event stimuli. Bitcoin not only withstood the pressure but also quietly broke through $99,000 amidst volatility, just one step away from the $100,000 mark.
Why does the market "ignore" hawkish warnings?
Powell's remarks seemed tough, but the market has already digested the expectation of "no rate cuts in the short term." Currently, CME interest rate futures show an 85% probability of a rate cut in July, and the market widely bets on at least two cuts within the year. This "loose expectation beneath hawkish appearances" has become an invisible support for risk assets.
At the same time, Trump suddenly announced the lifting of the Biden administration's restrictions on AI technology, directly igniting enthusiasm for tech stocks, leading to significant gains for leading stocks like Nvidia, and pushing the Nasdaq index to a new high. In the wave of renewed risk appetite, Bitcoin's dual attributes as "digital gold" and "tech asset" were once again highlighted, naturally drawing funds towards it.
Another key variable is the restart of China-U.S. trade negotiations. Although the U.S. ban on AI chips to China has not yet been lifted, the mere engagement between the two sides has released a signal of easing tensions. Historical experience shows that when the global trade environment improves, the crypto market often benefits from heightened liquidity expectations and market sentiment recovery. Bitcoin's rapid stabilization following the announcement is a testament to this logic.
