I woke up today to see Bitcoin nearing the $100,000 mark, but it seems no one in the major groups is shouting 'bull run' anymore; it looks like everyone has been worn down by the market.
This time, Bitcoin once again challenges the $100,000 mark. Can the long-awaited altcoin season finally arrive? Let's chat about it today.
In the crypto market, many investors are anxiously waiting for a familiar rhythm, where after a Bitcoin surge, funds flow into altcoins, igniting a comprehensive rise in the 'altcoin season.'
However, months have passed in 2025, Bitcoin continues to hit new highs, but altcoins have yet to experience a collective explosion. Why is this round of altcoin season arriving so late?
Below, I will analyze some reasons for the delayed altcoin season based on my understanding and some articles and data I have read on Twitter (purely personal opinion, please don't be offended).
In summary, there are six key points:
From 2024 to 2025, Bitcoin's market capitalization dominance (BTC Dominance) is expected to remain around 60%, a level close to the peak during the 2017 bull market. The reasons are mainly twofold: institutions are focusing on BTC: Since the approval of several Bitcoin spot ETFs at the end of 2023, traditional giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have entered the market, investing heavily in BTC, viewing it as the 'digital gold' of the crypto space, which has marginalized altcoin funding.
Safe haven attributes: Amid increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin is seen as the 'safe asset' in the crypto market, with institutions more willing to choose it over higher-risk altcoins.
Some crypto analysts also suggest that the explosion of altcoins often waits until Bitcoin finishes its parabolic run. Currently, Bitcoin is still hitting new highs, and investors naturally have no intention to diversify their risks.
2. Macroeconomic uncertainty
Unlike the loose policies of 2020-2021, the Federal Reserve currently maintains a high interest rate policy and continues to implement quantitative tightening (QT). This macro backdrop poses a significant suppression on risk assets. Market liquidity shortage: High interest rates + quantitative tightening (QT) lead to tight market liquidity, and altcoins, as high-volatility assets, struggle to secure sufficient funding in this lack of liquidity.
Repeating interest rate cut expectations: Although the market has repeatedly bet that the Federal Reserve will shift to easing, it has not materialized yet, and yesterday's meeting still did not show expectations for rate cuts, further suppressing market enthusiasm.
This macro environment contrasts sharply with the ample liquidity during the 2021 'Dogecoin craze,' directly impacting the performance space of altcoins.
3. Excess supply in the altcoin market, too many coins, too little money.
Today's crypto market is no longer an era where 'a few star projects can attract all the funding.' This oversaturation of altcoins has resulted in over 15,000 existing altcoins in the market, with new projects continuously being launched, while the funding pool has not expanded. Limited funds have been diluted across many projects, making it difficult for most tokens to sustain their price increases.
Additionally, venture capital has become conservative. Data shows that the total venture capital for crypto projects was $29.4 billion in 2022, plummeting to $7.1 billion in 2024. The lack of funding injection has prevented many projects from launching or gaining momentum.
Moreover, the 'involution' of the market environment has left altcoins without a basis for explosive growth.
4. Absence of retail investors: FOMO sentiment has yet to ignite
The true 'spark' of altcoin season has always come from the enthusiasm and trend-following behavior of retail investors. However, the retail crowd does not seem to have truly returned at this time. Low social heat: Data shows that discussions about cryptocurrencies on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and Reddit are far lower than in 2021. The kind of widespread market frenzy seen with Dogecoin (DOGE) and SHIB has not reoccurred.
Cautious sentiment: The memory of the 2022 crash is still fresh, and many retail investors remain wary of altcoins. 'Since Bitcoin has risen 150% this year, why should I risk buying an unheard-of token?' has become the sentiment for many investors.
The lukewarm attitude of retail investors has left the altcoin market lacking the 'catalyst' needed to ignite.
5. Regulatory ambiguity: Altcoin ETFs are still far off
In the current political cycle, although Trump's pro-crypto stance has brought some optimistic expectations to the market, actual progress remains slow. ETF approval bottlenecks: Despite mainstream altcoins like Solana, XRP, and DOGE being expected to launch ETF products, the SEC's approval remains unclear, and the anticipated 65-90% approval rate lacks a definitive timeline.
DeFi and stablecoins remain in doubt: Decentralized finance protocols and stablecoins are still in a 'gray area,' causing institutional funds to be cautious about investing in the altcoin space.
Until regulatory clarity is achieved, the large-scale entry of capital into altcoins remains uncertain.
6. Cyclical patterns
Finally, we cannot ignore a fact: the crypto market has always been cyclical. Bitcoin rises first, followed by altcoins: Whether in 2017 or 2021, most often altcoins start to rally after Bitcoin hits new highs. 2025 may still be in the early stages of this cycle.
The ETH/BTC ratio remains low: As the 'leader' of the altcoin sector, Ethereum's price ratio compared to Bitcoin is still close to historical lows, indicating that altcoin funding has yet to start rotating.
Historically, altcoin seasons often truly explode only after Bitcoin peaks and corrects.
As a final boost of encouragement:
The altcoin season has not been canceled, just 'delayed.' Currently, the altcoin market is not in a state of complete silence but is waiting for the 'right moment.' Bitcoin's dominance, the tightening macro environment, regulatory ambiguity, and the cautious attitude of retail investors together constitute the obstacles to this round of altcoin activity. However, once Bitcoin's price stabilizes and funds begin to rotate, narratives with explosive potential, such as AI, Layer 2, and DeFi, will become the first beneficiaries. Until then, what the market needs is patience, not restlessness. Let's wait for the wheels of time and quietly see the flowers bloom!
