《 $LAYER Textbook Trading》
Recently, I've been traveling and haven't had much time to deeply analyze things, so most of what I've seen has been 'skipped over', and I haven't thought carefully.
Through @solayer_labs' impressive work commute or after work, I can only say that going with the flow is very important.
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🌟 Are long-term short sellers really making money?
After seeing the drop, a lot of friends started congratulating those who began shorting at 1u, and I don't know if it's 'kind-hearted' concern or 'yin-yang' concern. After all, it's hard to understand those who held positions for 2 months in the long run?
In the long run, casually shorting has a higher probability of winning, which is related to returns.
After all, the profit from going long is ∞, which means the risk is ∞, while the profit from shorting is limited, which means the risk is limited.
Of course, this is just a literal situation. In reality, when going long, you can at most lose your principal, but when shorting, you can lose ∞.
After all, risk is proportional to profit.
And in the crypto space, 99.99% of projects go to zero, so in the long run, the risk of shorting is extremely low, which is why many people mindlessly short.
But aren't you afraid of encountering a 'forever strong' project party that just keeps pushing the price up?
Recently, a few mindless shorts at the opening can only say the odds are average, requiring a longer time to be trapped, whether it's $LAYER, $KAITO, or $BABY.
Of course, you could say that in the long run, everything goes to zero, and I can't argue with you. After all, I also don't know if you mean 1 year or 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 years. It's all reasonable.
I can only say don't short BTC; you can play with anything else. I can't understand it anyway, after all, going long on altcoins in this round has been a complete loss!!!
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🌟 Predictable right-side opportunities, go with the flow
Why do I say this wave is textbook-like? Because overall, if you look at the simplest thing, it's the $LAYER fee, which suddenly became -% on Tuesday, and then Bybit quickly changed it to charge per hour.
Then very quickly, the $LAYER fee hit -2% at the top.
This situation only appeared on the first day of the opening when everyone was Fudding.
Many people went the opposite way, thinking that if the fee was negative, they should start going long. This was the operation of group member Bob, who shouted for us to go short all the way during the rise, and when the fee hit -2%, he said we should eat and take, and as a result, it crashed.🤣
The only thing I didn't expect was that $LAYER could drop like a stone, falling 70% within two days. That's the biggest problem.
Anyway, most people only dare to eat a small part of the journey. It feels like there aren't many who can eat down from the top, after all, at the beginning, they thought a -2% fee could last for several days of sideways movement, but it all ended in one day.
At that time, when I saw the -2% fee, I could imagine who was 'spare no effort' in shorting, and it must have been those who 'spared no effort' in going long before that dared to do this, right?
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🌟 Shorting without a stop loss is like dancing on a grave
Brothers only see the 'eating meat and drinking soup' from shorting, but they really haven't seen the 'getting hit' from shorting.
Without going far, just take $ALPACA as an example; the grass on the graves of short sellers hasn't even grown to 3 meters high yet.
Going a bit further back, those who dollar-cost-averaged shorting $BTC, started from 15,000, and the group disappeared at 19,000.🤣
After all, unless you roll over your position when shorting, even if it goes to zero, you can only earn back your shorting principal, while the losses can be infinite, but infinite is just a 'figurative expression'.
You've heard of people rolling over positions and getting rich shorting, but you haven't heard of someone just shorting without rolling over and getting rich, right? (Of course, rolling over carries extremely high risk)
When you short and it doubles, you lose 100%; if it triples, you lose 200%; if it goes up 10 times, you lose 1000%; if it drops to zero, you earn 100%, and it's very hard to go to zero.😂
So if you don't set a stop loss, it means you think the odds are high, but can you face the 'loss amount' directly?
👿 Suppose you short 10wu, wanting to earn 1wu, then you lost 10wu, what will you do? If you lost 20wu, what will you do? If you lost 30wu, what will you do?
🐱 Of course, you will say you have unlimited margin. But suppose you lost 100wu. Wouldn't you feel that just to earn 1000u, I've lost 100wu, am I really a big fool?
Of course, if I take BTC as an example, that would be offensive, after all, no other crypto has gone up like it.🤣
If you're willing to make a deal where you lose 100wu to earn 1000u, then go ahead, but I won't do it.
So the shorting teachers always win, after all, they can hold positions indefinitely, and when the end comes, they tell everyone they've won, and then when you look at the fees, they lost 500% of their principal (see $ALPACA for reference).
