On the global economic stage, every decision made by the Federal Reserve is like the prelude to a storm, tugging at the nerves of capital markets. Powell's speeches and the Federal Reserve FOMC statements are undoubtedly the focal point in the current economic environment, revealing policymakers' profound insights into inflation, employment, and economic growth, while laying numerous foreshadowings for future market trends. 1. Powell's 'Ambiguous' Statement: Inflation, Employment, and Political Games Powell's remarks are filled with caution and ambiguity. He partially attributes the root causes of inflation to tariffs, yet distances himself from a direct association with political decisions. This attitude reflects the Federal Reserve's helplessness and perseverance in a complex economic environment. While inflation remains at a certain level, tax rate pressures may still trigger long-term inflation risks, and the intertwining concerns of robust employment growth and economic recession make interest rate cut decisions elusive.

Regarding employment issues, Powell expresses satisfaction with the stability of the unemployment rate and employment nearing its maximum level, yet emphasizes the complexity of economic data. The GDP fluctuations caused by import distortions are downplayed, but the negotiation stalemate makes the impact of inflation difficult to predict. Behind Powell's 'I don't know' lies the Federal Reserve's difficult balance between politics and economics. 2. FOMC Statement: Risk Warning Behind Inaction The FOMC statement conveys a signal of 'stability while seeking change.' The benchmark interest rate remains unchanged, with three consecutive periods of inaction, showing the Federal Reserve's cautious attitude towards policy. The stability of the unemployment rate and the resilience of the labor market seem to support economic growth, but the slightly high inflation rate and the rising risk of high unemployment cast a shadow over the future.

The ongoing implementation of the balance sheet reduction plan indicates the Federal Reserve's firm determination on the path of deleveraging. However, the uncertainty of the economic outlook 'further increases,' and fluctuations in net exports impact data, leaving the market full of doubts about future economic growth. This uncertainty not only tests investors' confidence but also challenges the Federal Reserve's ability to adjust policies. 3. Market Reaction: Investment Fog Under Uncertainty After Powell's speech and the release of the FOMC statement, market reactions varied. The stock market oscillates between cautious optimism and panic selling, while bond market yields experience increased volatility, making investors' expectations for future interest rate trends more complex. This uncertainty poses significant challenges for investment decisions and highlights the market's vulnerability under the influence of Federal Reserve policies.

For investors, Powell's speech and the FOMC statement are a double-edged sword. On one hand, a robust employment market and expectations of economic growth provide support for asset prices; on the other hand, inflation risks and the uncertainty of the economic outlook compel investors to remain vigilant against market reversals.

In today's profoundly changing global economic landscape, every decision made by the Federal Reserve can trigger a chain reaction. Powell's speeches and the FOMC statements are not only strategic layouts of policymakers but also a compass for investors seeking direction amidst uncertainty. In the future, the market will continue to fluctuate under the influence of Federal Reserve policies, and investors must maintain keen insight and cautious investment strategies to survive and profit in this economic game.#美联储FOMC会议