Forecast for BTC price movement in the next 24 hours

Technical Analysis:

* Key Resistance: $97,500 (4-hour Bollinger Bands middle line), $98,200 (previous high neckline).

* Key Support: $95,800 (yesterday's low), $94,000 (EMA30 moving average).

* Indicator Signals: RSI (4-hour) is currently at 48, neutral and slightly weak; TD sequence shows a rebound demand after six consecutive bearish candles.

Event Drivers:

* Bullish: Expectations for the bank custody policy implementation, progress on ETH Pectra upgrade testnet.

* Bearish: Cooling expectations for Fed rate cuts, ETH breaking down dragging down market sentiment, outflow of funds from altcoins.

Probability Distribution:

* Consolidation ($95,800-$97,500): 50% (market waiting for CPI data guidance).

* Upward ($98,200 breakout): 30% (if institutional funds increase positions on a pullback).

* Downward (below $95,800): 20% (ETH selling pressure spreads to BTC leverage liquidation).

Trading Suggestions:

* Short-term: Lightly short in the $97,000-$97,500 range, stop loss at $98,500, target $95,800; if it quickly breaks below $95,800, short to $94,500.