【What are the highlights of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision?】

1. Interest Rate Expectations: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% during this meeting, marking the third consecutive meeting of inaction. Currently, federal funds futures indicate that the market expects a 28.4% probability of a rate cut in June, pricing in a total reduction of 78 basis points for the entire year.

2. Voting Ratio: At the last meeting, the committee unanimously agreed to maintain the interest rate, but Governor Waller opposed the balance sheet reduction adjustment. This meeting is expected to also unanimously agree to hold steady, but if there are changes to the balance sheet reduction pace, Waller may cast another dissenting vote.

3. Balance Sheet Reduction Pace: Pay attention to whether there will be adjustments to the pace of balance sheet reduction. It is expected to maintain the pace set in March, keeping the limit on U.S. Treasury bond reductions at $5 billion per month and the limit on MBS reductions at $35 billion per month.

4. Statement Wording: Attention should be paid to the statement's comments regarding the economic outlook, whether it will adjust the wording from March regarding the “increased uncertainty of the economic outlook” to reflect heightened uncertainty, and modify the phrase “economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace” to reflect weak first-quarter GDP data. The phrasing “labor market conditions remain strong” and “inflation remains high” may be retained. There may be expressions of close attention to “external factors” (i.e., tariffs) in the statement.

5. Powell's Press Conference: He may continue to mention instability, expressing a stance of not rushing to adjust policy while awaiting clearer conditions. Pay attention to comments on recent economic data and the impact of U.S. trade policy on the economic outlook. Additionally, Powell may respond to Trump's recent criticism of his slow rate cuts.

6. Others: If this meeting maintains the interest rate unchanged, Trump is likely to ramp up criticism of Powell after the decision, calling for a rate cut. #美联储FOMC会议