All Eyes on Powell: Will the Fed Flip the Script This Time?

The next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting kicks off early Thursday—and it’s already sending ripples through the market. One thing’s clear: A June rate cut is off the table, with market pricing showing nearly a 70% probability that rates will hold steady.

Honestly, we should’ve seen this coming. As long as the U.S. economy stays afloat, there’s little incentive for the Fed to loosen policy. Now the real game begins: What exactly will Powell say about inflation and economic momentum? Will he hint at a possible July cut, or keep us hanging?

At the May meeting, Powell played it safe (again): data dependency, 2% inflation goal, and “no changes for now.” Yawn. But the real drama lies in this week’s dot plot—the Fed’s internal rate path projections. Two dots? Cautious optimism. Three? Markets could go wild—or go nowhere.

Until then, expect sideways movement. No one’s making bold moves. All eyes (and wallets) are waiting for Powell’s tone. Hawkish or dovish—it’ll dictate whether it’s time to buy the dip or cut your losses.

Snacks ready. Charts loaded. It’s Powell Watch time.

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