The real risk is that you never consider what to do when the market is improving.

— An article written for you who only focuses on bad news.


The longer I stay in the crypto market, the more convinced I am: what truly leads to pitfalls is not black swans or crashes, but having zero preparation for 'the market improving.'

Most investors aren't truly pessimistic; they are just 'only able to be pessimistic.' They are always ready for downturns, explosions, and liquidations, but never seriously consider what they would do if the market suddenly rebounds, if macroeconomic benefits materialize, or if funds flow back in. In their minds, there is no script for 'the market getting better,' only an obsession with 'buying the dip if it falls again.'

This is a one-sided expectation trap; once the market strengthens in the opposite direction, they will fall into the most painful state—missing out.

In the market, the most painful thing is not the losses, but watching others make money while you miss out.

The greatest illusion in the market: we think we are 'trading prices,' but in fact, we are 'trading expectations.'

In the past few weeks, the U.S. stock market and the crypto market have shown a similar scene:

On the macro side, signals of 'U.S.-China easing, falling inflation, and rising interest rate cut expectations' have begun to emerge, yet most investors still dare not enter because their minds remain stuck in the old logic of 'high interest rates, high inflation, and geopolitical risks' from the past year.

At this point, the market did something very ruthless yet very real: it first showed you an increase.

While everyone is still waiting for good news to 'land,' the price has already quietly taken off.

When you finally 'confirm safety' and want to jump in, the chips have already changed hands, the cost line has already been raised, and the risk-reward ratio has worsened.

You think the market is irrational, but it has simply understood something earlier than you: we are not trading reality, we are trading changes in expectations.

'Prepare for the worst,' but also 'leave room to cope with the best.'


Human nature inherently dislikes uncertainty, so we always prepare for the worst-case scenario. This is not wrong; it is a form of rational self-preservation. But the problem is, if you only prepare for 'bad news' while completely ignoring the ways and rhythms in which 'good news' may come, you lock yourself into a locally optimal safe zone.

Take a look and see if you are in this state:

  • Only holding stablecoins, thinking every day 'if it drops again, I will jump in.'


  • News only focuses on bad news, and the first reaction to good news is 'a rebound trap.'


  • Hedging every time it rises a little and cutting losses when it drops a little.


  • Clearly last year during the big drop, they repeatedly said, 'I will definitely seize the next bull market,' but now when they see the market rise, they just say, 'Too fast, I will wait for a pullback before getting in.'


It's not that you lack judgment, but that you lack a predefined optimistic script.

This is like a soldier only carrying a shield and no sword, ultimately having to watch opportunities slip away right beside them.

Strategy and mindset determine whether you are a loser or a 'bystander.'


Truly skilled traders prepare for several different scenarios even when the market is calm. They write down:


  • If it drops by 5%, how should I respond?


  • If it consolidates for 3 months, what should I do?


  • If it takes off directly, do I have the chips to participate? Do I have a profit-taking rhythm?


And what about most retail investors? They haven't even written down a single table.

When the market doesn't drop, they yell every day about buying the dip, but once it really rises, they turn into 'let's wait and see,' 'no rush,' and 'there will be a pullback.'

They think this is cautious, but in reality, it's being empty-handed and fearing heights when the market is up, and fearing drops when the market is down, getting hit from both sides while holding half a position.

In conclusion: what is most easily overlooked is actually the most crucial script.

The market will not move according to your thoughts; its essence is: the direction you least believe in has the highest possibility of happening; the path you most expect will not provide you with comfortable entry points.

If you are always preparing for a crash but never designing tactics for an uptrend, when the market really goes up, you can only stand still, like a bystander, watching others reap the rewards while you haven’t even put on your shoes.

Being prepared doesn't mean you should 'go all in,' nor does it mean making random guesses about tops and bottoms.

Instead, you should have the ability to create multiple contingency plans, distributing different risk exposures among various possibilities—able to hold during a downturn, follow during an upturn, and endure during fluctuations.


Risk management is not about focusing on controlling losses but about considering missing out as a form of 'risk' to avoid.

This is the full picture of trading, and it is also the basic skill we should practice.