Chart analysis

On the ETH/USD (30-minute) chart, a corrective wave IV is forming after an impulsive rise.

Key levels:

  • Support: $1,670.58 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave iii)

  • Resistance: $1,833.33 (50% Fibonacci retracement)

Elliott Wave Forecast

  • Current phase: Correction Wave IV is ending, preparing for the start of Wave V (impulse wave)

  • Targets:

    • Upon breaking $1,833.33 — growth to $2,017.05 (161.8% Fibonacci extension)

    • Upon breaking support at $1,670.58 — decline to $1,477.67 (78.6% Fibonacci level)

Microstructural signals

  • Liquidity: Concentration of buy orders in the $1,700–$1,750 zone (confirms support level)

  • Volumes: Increasing volumes when closing above $1,833.33 enhances the likelihood of a bullish scenario

Trading strategy

Long position:

  • Trigger: Closing the candle above $1,833.33 with volume > $32.5 million.

  • Take Profit: $2,017.05 (161.8% Fibonacci)

  • Stop Loss: $1,770 (current price)

Short position:

  • Trigger: Breaking support at $1,670.58 with liquidity < $20 million.

  • Take Profit: $1,477.67 (78.6% Fibonacci)

  • Stop Loss: $1,733.84 (current price)

Risk management

  • Position size: No more than 2% of the portfolio.

  • News: Watch for the Fed's decisions (May 14-15) and updates on Ethereum Pectra Mainnet.

Conclusion

ETH is at a crossroads: breaking $1,833.33 will trigger a new upward impulse, while a drop below $1,670.58 will deepen the correction. Use a combination of wave analysis and microstructure for precise entry.

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