Today is April 22, 2025, Tuesday. Recently, Bitcoin's price has been quite strong. The U.S. stock market has plummeted, but Bitcoin not only did not follow the decline but actually rallied against the trend. Previously, Bitcoin generally moved in tandem with the U.S. stock market, but this time it maintained its strength amidst the U.S. stock market drop and Trump's criticism of Powell, which has led to policy uncertainty. This morning, it peaked at $88,850, providing support for sentiment. In contrast, the U.S. stock market continues to weaken due to the ongoing struggles over trade wars and interest rate cut expectations, which has pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up to 4.5%.
Speaking of trade wars, the impact of tariffs is not as significant now; the key is how much damage tariffs will inflict on the economy. The recent drop in the U.S. dollar index is due to market concerns about this. Especially with the U.S. Q1 GDP data set to be released on April 30, this data is particularly critical. If the data is good, the Federal Reserve will definitely say 'let's take a look, there is no rush to cut rates,' which is neither good nor bad for the market. However, if the data is poor, it may increase the probability of rate cuts, but it also means that the economy may be headed for recession, which would be a negative factor. Therefore, regardless of the data, it is not good news for risk assets.
Currently, Bitcoin at $87,700 has indeed no significant resistance until $93,000, where there will be a lot of trapped positions. However, it's important to note that Bitcoin has risen from $75,000 to $88,000, which is quite a substantial increase. Although the support below $84,000 is strong, and the chip structure is also stable, we still need to be cautious of the potential pullback due to systemic risks in the current uncertain macro environment and the possibility of economic downturn. Overall, the space for Bitcoin to continue rising may be limited, and in the short term, it is advisable to wait and see, focusing on whether the on-chain support can hold. If market sentiment suddenly turns negative and panic sets in, it's uncertain whether the current price can hold up.
Let's take a look at the altcoin side; there has finally been some movement recently. Liquidity is slowly returning, and main funds are showing interest in rallying. The most obvious sign is that some previously devastated niche altcoins have suddenly surged collectively, beginning to catch up with leading coins. Moving forward, we can slightly shift our focus in this direction.
Regarding on-chain, the recently popular RFC and DARK have been captured by our community, but leaving some positions has also seen considerable retracement, which is painful. Currently, there are still too few major projects focused on P on-chain, and with the upper limit being too low, there is no motivation for continued support. To bring in substantial liquidity, we still need to launch a truly large project.
Currently, my position in secondary altcoins is mainly in $pepe, with an average price around 0.0000065. This coin is also favored by our community. The first wave of altcoin leaders is mostly revolving around the gaming sector, but they are all small-cap projects. Although the rises are significant, the risks are relatively higher. Next, I suggest everyone pay more attention to a few fundamentally sound large coins, as these coins are basically all in the bottom range and are relatively safer.
Overall, it is a good thing that Bitcoin is moving independently now, but we must also be vigilant about macro risks. Although altcoins are starting to become active, we should be selective and not get carried away by the explosive growth of small-cap coins. In this market, controlling positions and maintaining patience are the most important.
Let's keep it simple today, and we'll see you next time!