This morning, US stock futures and Bitcoin are both rising. The S&P and Nasdaq futures have already made up for yesterday's losses, and Bitcoin has surged to $97,000. This rise is due to the good signal released by the US-China dialogue, and the central bank has also lowered interest rates and reserve requirements, injecting one trillion dollars of liquidity into the market. The three major A-share indices opened high, and the Hong Kong stock market is also rising. In simple terms, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Bitcoin are all benefiting from this policy.
Furthermore, New Hampshire has become the first state in the U.S. to pass legislation for a 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,' officially signing the HB302 bill. This bill authorizes the state treasurer to purchase Bitcoin or digital assets with a market cap over $500 billion, setting a holding limit of 5% of total reserve funds. The bill will come into effect in 60 days, and it is likely that more states will follow suit. Although the purchase volume cannot compare to MSTR, the status of BTC has stepped up significantly, boosting confidence similar to gold's 10-year bull market following ETF approvals.
At 6 PM today, Ethereum will undergo the Potala upgrade, the main content:
1. The use of EIP-7702 transforms regular wallets into smart contract wallets, achieving account abstraction.
2. Doubles the number of blobs per block, enhancing scalability.
3. Reduces L2 costs, but will also decrease Ethereum's mainnet revenue and ETH burn.
4. Raises the staking cap from 32 ETH to 2048, improving staking efficiency. As mentioned yesterday, the summary of Ethereum upgrades shows that the benefits outweigh the drawbacks. Let's look forward to ETH's performance in the future!
The SEC has postponed the approval of ETFs for cryptocurrencies like Litecoin, Ripple, and Dogecoin until June 17, currently seeking public opinion. This delay is actually in line with market expectations; Bitcoin's ETF has been postponed several times, let alone altcoins. Therefore, everyone still needs to be patient. Essentially, the postponement of altcoin ETFs is not negative news. Given the current market environment, even if passed, it may not ease the entire market. As long as there is no rejection, the expectations for ETFs remain, and there are still opportunities to speculate on those expectations.
Recently, the price trend of small market cap altcoins has increased from the lowest point in early April, but most are still soft and lack energy. This tentative rise is like drawing the letter W; it rises a bit and then falls back, rises a bit more, and then drops again, spinning in place for a long time.
The reason is that Binance, apart from the Alpha zone, specifically promotes those low market cap altcoins that may go to spot. There isn't much liquid money in the market, and this zone also siphons off some hot money. Therefore, the major market movements for these small coins have not really started yet.
Other altcoins have recently performed like a bear market, with altcoin trends currently worse than in July and August of last year. Therefore, subjectively, I still lean towards the view that we are not directly entering a bull market here.
As for the mainstream large coins, although there has been some rebound recently, it resembles a person recovering from a serious illness, needing to rest after taking a few steps. Why? Because there are still a lot of trapped positions in these coins; as soon as the price rises a little, people jump ship and run away. If they really want to soar, they first need to shake off those retail investors riding on their backs. This process takes time, but once the market is cleaned up, the final explosion will definitely be fierce.
Additionally, at 2 AM tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. There will be no rate cuts in May, and we will see Powell's tone during this meeting, including expectations for June. Not cutting rates will not be a negative factor; this kind of news speculation has been digested well in advance. The decision not to cut rates in May will squeeze the frequency of rate cuts in the second half of the year. Once we get past this point, the market will only speculate on rate cut expectations. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates three times between June, September, and December, there will be sufficient liquidity, including hot money.
The current market is being led by policies and macroeconomic factors; only significant news can create large fluctuations. The usual fund games within the circle are so small, resembling child's play, that large news events must finish influencing the market direction before Bitcoin and smaller assets can move.
Looking forward to it tonight!
Brothers have gathered for chat:
