$ETH 1840 Open Air

### **Core Logic and Key Factors**

1. **Short-term Technical Signals**

- **Resistance Level**: $1850-1860 (4-hour high + EMA30 pressure), breaking this would increase the risk for short positions.

- **Support Level**: $1800 (psychological level + weekly support), if broken, it may accelerate to $1760-1780.

- **Indicator Status**: 4-hour RSI (49) is neutral to weak, MACD death cross is emerging, but trading volume is shrinking, caution is needed for a rebound correction.

2. **Market Sentiment and Correlation**

- **Bitcoin Drag Risk**: If BTC fails to stabilize at $97,000, the ETH/BTC exchange rate may weaken further, amplifying the decline.

- **Capital Diversion Pressure**: Recent market focus has shifted to SOL and other altcoins, with weak capital inflow to ETH (on-chain data shows an increase in net inflow to exchanges).

3. **On-chain Data and Event Risks**

- **Whale Movements**: An address holding 100,000 ETH transferred 5,000 ETH to Binance in the last 24 hours, which may imply short-term selling pressure.

### **Short Position Operation Optimization Suggestions**

- **Position Management**:

- **Current Short Stop Loss**: Recommended to set at $1865 (previous high + 3% margin for error).

- **Take Profit in Batches**:

✅ First Target $1800 (close 50%).

✅ Second Target $1760 (remaining position to follow stop loss).

- **Risk Hedging**:

- If BTC suddenly surges, a small BTC/ETH hedging position can be opened.

- **Key Observation Points**:

✅ **$1850 Sell Order Wall Thickness** (Coinbase/Binance spot market).

✅ **ETH Perpetual Contract Funding Rate** (if negative rate expands, shorts need to be wary of short squeeze risk).