$BTC Continue, continue, the big pancake has given the Air Force another opportunity to get on board
Old rule Defense 95666
1. **Technical Signal Divergence**
- **Resistance and Support Levels**: The current price is close to the key resistance level of $95,500. If it fails to break through, it may pull back to $94,500 (4-hour EMA15 moving average) or lower. If it breaks below the psychological level of $93,000, it may accelerate downward to $91,700.
- **Indicator Contradiction**: The MACD on the daily level shows a top divergence, and the RSI is near the overbought area (60-70), indicating weakening short-term upward momentum and increased risk of a pullback. However, the Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, indicating increased volatility, and caution is needed for a short squeeze after breaking resistance.
2. **On-chain and Market Sentiment**
- **Short-term Holder Selling Pressure**: On-chain data shows that in the past week, short-term holders (holding <6 months) transferred $4.4 billion worth of Bitcoin to exchanges, similar to the selling signals at the beginning of the bear market in 2022, which may suppress the price.
- **Short Position Risk**: The current funding rate is negative, and the proportion of short positions is increasing. If the price unexpectedly breaks the resistance level, it may trigger a short squeeze, driving the price up in the short term.
- **Institutional and Policy Support**: Arizona has passed a Bitcoin reserve bill, and institutions like Metaplanet are buying on dips. Long-term holders account for 69% of holdings, providing bottom support for the market.
3. **External Events and Liquidity**
- **ETF Fund Fluctuations**: On April 22, the spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.54 billion in a single day, but the stability of recent fund inflows is insufficient. If there are subsequent outflows, it may drag the price down.
- **Correlation with US Stocks**: The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has risen to 0.47. If US stocks decline, it may transmit to the crypto market.
- **Policy Uncertainty**: The Trump administration's Bitcoin strategic reserve plan and the progress of global trade negotiations may trigger sudden changes in market sentiment.
Considering the technical aspects, on-chain data, and external events, **the Bitcoin price is more likely to test the range of $94,500-$93,000 within 4 hours**, but caution is needed for reverse volatility triggered by favorable policies or short squeezes. If the price does not drop as expected, it is advisable to stop-loss in a timely manner and observe. Short-term operations should strictly control positions to avoid high leverage risks.