$BTC 93000 open long, short position take profit. Long position opened
1. **Key technical signals**
- **Resistance level**: $94,500 (4-hour EMA50 moving average) → Target $95,800 after breaking through (previous high dense trading area).
- **Support level**: $92,000 (recent low and on-chain cost area) → If broken, may accelerate the pullback to $90,500.
- **Indicator divergence**:
- **RSI (55)**: Neutral zone, not overbought but limited upward momentum;
- **MACD**: Golden cross beginning to appear on the 4-hour level, but still in a top divergence state on the daily level, caution is needed for intensified short-term fluctuations.
2. **On-chain data and sentiment**
- **Short-term selling pressure alleviated**: Net outflow of 12,000 BTC (approximately $1.12 billion) from exchanges in the past 24 hours, selling pressure has decreased in the short term.
- **Whale movements**: Addresses holding >10,000 BTC increased their positions by 4.3% in the last 3 days, indicating large funds are accumulating at lower prices.
- **Funding rate**: Perpetual contract funding rate -0.03% (shorts dominant), if the price rebounds, it may trigger a short squeeze.
3. **External catalytic factors**
- **ETF capital inflow**: If BlackRock/Fidelity's ETF resumes net inflows after the US stock market opens (previous day net inflow +$230 million), it may drive price rebounds.
- **Dollar index fluctuations**: The dollar index fell to 103.5 (April 2025 low), a weak dollar environment favors risk assets.
- **Policy-sensitive period**: The Trump administration may announce a draft policy for Bitcoin tax relief on May 1, with the market anticipating this in advance.
1. **Position opening risk control**
- **Stop loss**: Strictly set at $91,800 (200 dollars below the support level) to prevent black swan events.
- **Leverage recommendation**: ≤5 times (if the price rebounds to $94,500, leverage will automatically decrease to 3 times).
2. **Dynamic take profit**
- **First take profit level**: $94,500 (close 50% of the position, lock in partial profits);
- **Second take profit level**: $95,800 resistance level (close 30%, remaining 20% trail take profit to $97,200).