Bitcoin, as a benchmark for crypto assets, has its value logic rooted in decentralized consensus and anti-inflation properties. Short-term prices are dominated by Federal Reserve policies, institutional fund flows (such as ETF position changes), and on-chain data (miner selling pressure, whale address movements), resulting in significant volatility. Technically, key support/resistance levels and supply-demand restructuring after the halving cycle are of focus. In the medium to long term, its 'digital gold' narrative and the expansion of Layer 2 ecosystems may enhance application scenarios, but regulatory uncertainties and competition from alternative public chains cannot be overlooked. Investors need to be wary of high leverage risks and adopt a allocation mindset to cope with high volatility markets, balancing the dual attributes of speculation and value storage.